Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+207)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Dak Prescott to exceed 14.5 rushing yards in the game against the Arizona Cardinals might seem a risky proposition given his recent performance and hit rates. Prescott has a current hit streak of zero, both overall and at home, indicating that he hasn't been surpassing this rushing yard total in his recent games. His last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games all show low hit rates with him only surpassing 14.5 rushing yards on 1/10 of his last 10 games and 2/20 of his last 20 games. However, when specifically facing Arizona, he has a 100% hit rate in his last encounters, which could suggest that Prescott's playing style might be especially effective against the Cardinals' defense. Nonetheless, considering his overall hit rate of 14/48, this bet is likely to be high risk despite the specific trend against Arizona.
Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, Dak Prescott's recent performance does not make a strong case for backing the Over 7.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games has been low (0/3, 0/5, 1/10, 3/20). This suggests that he has not been achieving more than 7.5 rushing yards in most recent games. His home hit rate is slightly better, particularly over the last 20 games where he's hit 10/20, but it's still only a 50% success rate. Interestingly, Prescott has a perfect hit rate against the Arizona Cardinals (1/1), but this is based on a single game, which is not a robust enough sample size. His current hit streak is also at 0. The model edge of 0.07 is also relatively low, indicating the statistical model sees only a slight advantage
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals : NA Moneyline (+145)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Arizona Cardinals in the head-to-head (h2h) market seems to be a reasonable one when considering the recent performance data. The Cardinals have a higher score for both overall and home averages over the last 5 games compared to their opponents, with the home score averaging 33.8 points, which is significantly higher than the away team's overall average of 21.2 points. This advantage is also reflected in the Expected Points Added (EPA) data, with the Cardinals having a positive EPA difference in both overall and home games, whereas the away team has a negative EPA difference in their overall performance. The Cardinals also have a better turnover differential, indicating a more disciplined and efficient team. Even though the Cardinals have a losing record against their opponent in their last 5 encounters, the recent form and statistical advantages suggest a good chance for the Cardinals to win this game.
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