Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Friday 10/31 (Tanner Conner Focus)

While the model edge of 0.196061247591354 suggests there is some value in betting on Tanner Conner to exceed 13.5 receiving yards, his recent performance data does not inspire much confidence. Over his last 5 games, Conner has failed to hit this mark at all, with an overall hit rate of 0/5. Even expanding to his last 10 and 20 games, his hit rate remains poor at 1/10. His performance at home games doesn't significantly improve this picture with a hit rate of 1/3. His current hit streak is also at zero, both overall and at home, meaning he has not recently been exceeding this mark. Therefore, despite the model edge, the player's recent performance and trends suggest that betting on Over 13.5 receiving yards for Tanner Conner carries substantial risk.

Tanner Conner (MIA) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-102)

Based on the provided data, betting on Tanner Conner for Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market seems like a risky proposition. His recent performance and trends do not particularly favor this outcome. Looking at his overall hit rate, Conner has only met this mark once in the last 10 games. His performance is slightly better at home, with a hit rate of 1/3, but this is still not overly convincing. Moreover, his current hit streaks are both at zero, indicating he hasn't recently been surpassing the 14.5 reception yards mark. The model edge of 0.19215511313214 does show some statistical advantage, but considering Conner's recent performance and hit rates, it may not be enough to confidently back this bet.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Betting on Tua Tagovailoa to rush for over 1.5 yards in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens is a risk, given his recent performance and hit rates. Tagovailoa has a current hit streak of zero in overall and home games, indicating he hasn't been able to exceed 1.5 rushing yards in recent games. Furthermore, his recent hit rates aren't promising, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 and home hit rate of 1/5 in his last five games. His performance against the Ravens isn't much better, with a 50% hit rate in his last two games against them. The model suggests a slight edge of 18.75%, but considering Tagovailoa's recent performance and hit rates, this bet is risky. The data suggests he's been struggling to get rushing yards, which makes this bet a gamble.

Tanner Conner (MIA) Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Based purely on the statistical data provided, betting on Tanner Conner to achieve over 13.5 'player reception yards' seems like a risky proposition. Conner’s recent performance and hit rates suggest that he has been struggling to exceed this threshold. In his last 5 games overall, he has failed to hit this mark, indicated by the 0/5 overall hit rate. In fact, his hit rate over the last 10 and 20 games is also only 1/10. However, his home hit rates are slightly better. He has achieved over 13.5 'player reception yards' in 33% of his home games. This suggests that playing at home may provide a slight advantage for Conner, but the overall pattern still shows a higher likelihood of him not reaching the over 13.5 mark. Consequently, the data indicates that betting on the 'Over' for Conner's reception yards may not be the most statistically sound decision.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-119)

Based on the provided data, betting on Tua Tagovailoa to rush for over 2.5 yards might seem like a risky proposition. His recent performance indicates a lack of success in rushing yards, as seen in his overall hit rate in the last 20 games (6/20) and his current hit streak of 0. However, there are a few factors to consider that could tip the scales in favor of this bet. Firstly, Tagovailoa has had relative success against the Baltimore Ravens, with a hit rate of 1/2 in the last 3 and 5 games, and an overall hit rate of 1/2. This suggests that he might perform better than usual against this specific opponent. Secondly, his home performance is stronger compared to his overall performance, with a hit rate of 9/20 in the last 20 home games and 10/25 overall. Given that the Dolphins are the home team for this game, this