Kayshon Boutte (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Kayshon Boutte scoring a touchdown at any time during the game is not promising. Over his last 20 games, he has only scored 3 touchdowns (a 15% hit rate), and his success rate drops to 10% when focusing on his last 10 games. Furthermore, his recent performance is concerning as he has not scored in his last 3 games, either overall or at home, indicating a current hit streak of zero. His performance at home has also been underwhelming, with a hit rate of only 15.38% over his home career and 20% in his last 10 home games. The model edge of 0.17445414998448 also suggests a low probability of him scoring. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on Boutte to score a touchdown at any time during the game seems like a risky proposition.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -5.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The New England Patriots -5.5 spread bet is supported by a compelling statistical rationale. The Patriots have outperformed in their last five games, both overall and at home, with a 5-0 and 3-2 record, respectively. They've averaged 30.6 points per game overall and 24.8 at home, versus their opponents' respective 15.6 and 16.6 points. The Patriots' home_expected_points_added (epa) differential (7.78) and turnover differential (+1) further underscore their home field advantage. Additionally, their explosive play rate (0.25) is higher than their opponents' (0.20). Conversely, the opposing team has struggled recently, with a 2-3 record in their last five games, both overall and away. Their point differential is negative (-9.4 overall, -4.8 away), and they've been outperformed in both passing and rushing epa. Their
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : Under 44.5 Total Points (+100)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market for the NA vs NA game is backed by the recent performance data of both teams. The home team has a strong defensive record, only allowing an average of 15.6 points in their last five games. They're also generating a positive turnover differential, which often leads to lower scoring games. The away team, on the other hand, has been struggling offensively, scoring an average of just 15.6 points in their last five games. They also have a negative points differential, indicating they are generally being outscored by their opponents. Furthermore, their negative EPA (expected points added) figures suggest inefficiency on both sides of the ball, which is likely to limit their scoring potential. These factors combined provide a statistical rationale for expecting a total score under 44.5 points.
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