Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Picks : Odds & Edges

Betting on the Miami Dolphins with a 7.5 spread appears to be statistically sound considering the recent performance data. The Dolphins' overall Expected Points Added (EPA) difference in the last five games is higher than their opposition's, indicating a better offensive efficiency. The Dolphins have also been stronger in defensive play, as evidenced by the lower EPA against. Furthermore, while the turnover differential for both teams is roughly equal, the Dolphins have a higher home turnover differential, suggesting they may be more adept at causing turnovers when playing at home. Despite a lower total yardage in the last five games, the Dolphins have managed to score more on average than their opposition. This again suggests a higher offensive efficiency. Finally, the Dolphins have a better home record, which may give them a psychological edge in this game. Overall, these factors combine to make the Dolphins a statistically strong bet with a 7.5 spread.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145)

The betting data for Jaylen Waddle scoring a touchdown at any time during the match between Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens does not strongly favor the outcome. Waddle's recent performance (last 3, 5, 10, 20 games) shows a low hit rate, with him not scoring in any of the last 10 games overall and only once in the last 5 home games. His overall hit rate is also low, scoring only 12 times in 56 games. Although his hit rate against Baltimore is perfect (1/1), this is based on a small sample size. Additionally, his current hit streak is 0 for both overall and home games, indicating a lack of recent scoring success. The model edge of 0.094 is relatively low, suggesting that the model does not strongly favor this outcome. Therefore, based on statistical reasoning, the bet on Waddle scoring a touchdown does not seem promising.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145)

Betting on Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown at any time in the game against the Baltimore Ravens might seem like a risk, given his recent performance. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 2/20 (10%), and he's on a zero hit streak currently, meaning he hasn't scored a touchdown in his recent games. However, there are a couple of factors that could swing the odds in his favor. Waddle has scored a touchdown every time he has played against the Ravens (1/1), indicating that he performs well against this specific team. Furthermore, his home hit rate is slightly better than his overall hit rate, suggesting that he tends to perform better in home games like this one. Predictive models also provide a slight edge (0.094). Though the recent trends are not overwhelmingly in his favor, these factors may increase the chances of Waddle scoring a touchdown.

Tanner Conner (MIA) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-345)

The betting rationale for Tanner Conner to achieve Over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens does not appear to be statistically favorable based on recent performance metrics. Conner has a poor overall hit rate, striking only 1 out of 10 attempts in the last 10 and 20 games. His hit rate at home games is slightly better at 1 out of 3 but still not promising. Moreover, he is currently on a zero hit streak both overall and at home. This trend suggests that he has been consistently underperforming in recent games. While the model suggests a slight edge (6.84%), given Connor's weak recent performance and hit rate, this bet may be too risky based on the available data. It's advisable to consider these factors before deciding to place this bet.