Tanner Conner (MIA) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+101)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Tanner Conner suggests a cautious approach to betting over 14.5 on the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. Conner's recent performance, specifically the hit rate, shows a downward trend. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is 0/3, 0/5, 1/10, and 1/10 respectively. His current hit streak is also at 0, indicating a lack of recent success. On the home front, while slightly better with a 1/3 hit rate, the home current hit streak is also at 0. The model edge of approximately 0.20, while positive, is not substantial enough to outweigh these negative trends. Therefore, based on the provided statistics and recent performance, the bet on Tanner Conner for Over 14.5 might not be the best option.
Tanner Conner (MIA) Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
While the model edge of 0.196061247591354 suggests there is some value in betting on Tanner Conner to exceed 13.5 receiving yards, his recent performance data does not inspire much confidence. Over his last 5 games, Conner has failed to hit this mark at all, with an overall hit rate of 0/5. Even expanding to his last 10 and 20 games, his hit rate remains poor at 1/10. His performance at home games doesn't significantly improve this picture with a hit rate of 1/3. His current hit streak is also at zero, both overall and at home, meaning he has not recently been exceeding this mark. Therefore, despite the model edge, the player's recent performance and trends suggest that betting on Over 13.5 receiving yards for Tanner Conner carries substantial risk.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, betting on Tua Tagovailoa to rush for over 2.5 yards might seem like a risky proposition. His recent performance indicates a lack of success in rushing yards, as seen in his overall hit rate in the last 20 games (6/20) and his current hit streak of 0. However, there are a few factors to consider that could tip the scales in favor of this bet. Firstly, Tagovailoa has had relative success against the Baltimore Ravens, with a hit rate of 1/2 in the last 3 and 5 games, and an overall hit rate of 1/2. This suggests that he might perform better than usual against this specific opponent. Secondly, his home performance is stronger compared to his overall performance, with a hit rate of 9/20 in the last 20 home games and 10/25 overall. Given that the Dolphins are the home team for this game, this
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