Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers : NA +7.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for a spread bet on the Cleveland Browns at 7.5 is statistically sound. Analyzing the teams' last five games, the Browns have outperformed the home team in several key areas. They've recorded a higher average score (22.2 vs 10.4), a positive point difference (1.4 vs -17), and a better Expected Points Added (EPA) difference (1.81 vs -19.85). Furthermore, the Browns have an overall better record in their last five games (2-3 vs 0-5). The home team also has distinct disadvantages. Their high average turnovers (2.2) compared to the Browns (1.4) suggests they are more prone to costly mistakes. Also, the home team's high scores against and lower scores for imply a struggle to both attack and defend effectively. Considering these factors, the Browns appear statistically likely to beat the 7.5 point spread, making a bet on
Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers : NA +8.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Cleveland Browns at 8.5 in the spreads market is backed by a combination of the team's recent performance and the struggling home team. The Browns have a positive overall point differential (+1.4) from their last five games, compared to a heavy negative for the home team (-17). The Browns also score, on average, 22.2 points per game, which is significantly higher than the home team's 10.4. The home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) statistics also favor the Browns. The home team has a negative EPA differential in their last five games, with both their offensive and defensive EPA in the negatives. Meanwhile, the Browns' EPA differential is positive, demonstrating a more effective offense and defense. The Browns also have a higher explosive rate, indicating a more dynamic offensive performance. The home team's high turnover rate further increases the Browns' chances of covering the spread. Their records over the last five games (Browns:
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Carolina Panthers with a 5.5 point spread in the 'spreads' market is justified due to their superior statistical performance over the last five games. The Panthers have a positive overall point differential of 5.6, indicating they score more points than they concede on average. This is in contrast to the home team’s negative point differential of -8.6. The Panthers also show a positive EPA differential of 7.61, suggesting they make more efficient use of their possessions, while the home team has a negative EPA differential of -8.52. Additionally, the Panthers have been gaining more total yards (377.4) compared to the home team (325.6), which is a significant factor in scoring points. Although both teams have a similar recent win-loss record (2-3), the data indicate that the Panthers are performing better on the field, justifying the bet in their favor.
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the Carolina Panthers getting 5.5 points in the 'spreads' market is backed by several key statistics. Firstly, the Panthers have a better overall scoring and point differential in their last 5 games compared to their opponents. They've averaged 27.6 points per game and have a point differential of +5.6, compared to their opponents' average of 25.2 points and a differential of -8.6. This indicates the Panthers' ability to outscore their opponents. Secondly, the Panthers have also performed better in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each individual play to the team's scoring margin. Panthers' overall EPA for and against difference is positive (+7.61) while their opponents' is negative (-8.52), suggesting the Panthers are more efficient in converting their plays into points. Moreover, the Panthers have generated more total yards (377.4) than their opponents (325.6), indicating
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA -3 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings appear to be a strong bet at -3 in the spreads market for several reasons. Firstly, the Vikings have a model edge of 0.063, indicating that the model sees a statistical advantage in betting on them. Furthermore, the Vikings have a solid overall scoring record in their last five games, averaging 24.2 points compared to their opponents' 18. This 6.2 point difference is double the spread, which bodes well for the Vikings covering it. The Vikings also hold an advantage in expected points added (EPA), with a positive differential in both passing and rushing EPA in their last five games. Additionally, the Vikings have a strong recent record, winning all of their last five games overall and four out of five on the road. The combination of these factors makes the Vikings a statistically sound bet at -3 in the spreads market.
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA -3 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings -3 bet in the spreads market is primarily based on the team's superior recent performance compared to its opponent. Analyzing the teams' last 5 games, the Vikings have an overall positive point difference of 6.2 and a 5-0 overall record, suggesting they have been playing well lately. Comparatively, the home team has a negative point difference of -10.2 and a 2-3 overall record. In terms of effectiveness per attempt, the Vikings have a positive EPA difference of 6.42 compared to the home team's negative EPA difference of -12.72, indicating that the Vikings have been more efficient in their plays. Furthermore, the Vikings have a higher explosive rate (0.226) than the home team (0.20), which suggests they are more likely to make significant gains on any given play. These figures suggest a bet on the Vikings is statistically justified.
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