Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA Moneyline (+136)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical rationale for betting on the Cincinnati Bengals in this head-to-head (h2h) market against the home team is driven by their recent performance and the home team's struggles. The Bengals have a superior overall record in their last five games (5-0) compared to the home team's (2-3) and have won their most recent matchup against the home team. Additionally, the Bengals have shown higher offensive and defensive efficiency in their last five games. They have scored more points (24.2 to 15.6), conceded fewer points (18 to 25.8), and have a positive point difference of 6.2 compared to the home team's negative point difference of -10.2. They have also demonstrated better Expected Points Added (EPA) numbers both offensively and defensively, highlighting their superior playmaking ability on both sides of the ball. Moreover, the Bengals have been more explosive on offense and have managed to limit their opponent's big plays better
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA -3 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings appear to be a strong bet at -3 in the spreads market for several reasons. Firstly, the Vikings have a model edge of 0.063, indicating that the model sees a statistical advantage in betting on them. Furthermore, the Vikings have a solid overall scoring record in their last five games, averaging 24.2 points compared to their opponents' 18. This 6.2 point difference is double the spread, which bodes well for the Vikings covering it. The Vikings also hold an advantage in expected points added (EPA), with a positive differential in both passing and rushing EPA in their last five games. Additionally, the Vikings have a strong recent record, winning all of their last five games overall and four out of five on the road. The combination of these factors makes the Vikings a statistically sound bet at -3 in the spreads market.
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA Moneyline (+132)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The reasoning for the bet on Cincinnati Bengals is informed by their superior record and performance metrics over the last five games. The Bengals have an impressive 5-0 overall record, compared to the home team's 2-3. Their average point differential in these games is +6.2, far surpassing the home team's -10.2. The Bengals' offense has also been more potent, scoring an average of 24.2 points and gaining 326 yards per game, compared to the home team's 15.6 points and 285.2 yards. The Bengals have a positive turnover differential (+0.4), and their explosive rate of 0.226 is slightly higher than the home team's. The Bengals also outperform the home team in EPA (Expected Points Added) metrics, both in offense and defense, indicating their superior effectiveness in scoring and stopping opponents. Based on these statistics, the Bengals have a clear edge in this head-to-head matchup.
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA -3 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings -3 bet in the spreads market is primarily based on the team's superior recent performance compared to its opponent. Analyzing the teams' last 5 games, the Vikings have an overall positive point difference of 6.2 and a 5-0 overall record, suggesting they have been playing well lately. Comparatively, the home team has a negative point difference of -10.2 and a 2-3 overall record. In terms of effectiveness per attempt, the Vikings have a positive EPA difference of 6.42 compared to the home team's negative EPA difference of -12.72, indicating that the Vikings have been more efficient in their plays. Furthermore, the Vikings have a higher explosive rate (0.226) than the home team (0.20), which suggests they are more likely to make significant gains on any given play. These figures suggest a bet on the Vikings is statistically justified.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown at any time during the Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals game appears to be a risky proposition based on his recent performance and trends. Over his last five games, Jefferson has failed to score a touchdown (0/5), and he has not scored in any of his last three games (0/3). His hit rate at home over the last five games is slightly better (2/5) but still not stellar. Additionally, in his last matchup against the Bengals, Jefferson did not score (0/1). His overall touchdown hit rate is less than 50% (20/48), and his home hit rate is just under 50% (12/25). Furthermore, his current hit streaks overall, at home, and against the Bengals are all zero. Based on these statistics, betting on Jefferson to score a touchdown does not seem to be the most reliable choice.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown in the 'player_anytime_td' market may be considered a risky wager. Jefferson's recent performance and trends suggest a lower probability of him scoring. He hasn't scored in his last three overall games, last five overall games, or in his last game against the Cincinnati Bengals. His last 10 and 20 overall games and home games also show a hit rate of just 30% and 50%, respectively. His overall hit rate is slightly better at 41.67%, but still not overwhelmingly strong. Furthermore, Jefferson is currently on a hit streak of zero in all categories. Thus, while there's a slim model edge of 1.45% in favor of Jefferson scoring, his recent performance and trends do not support a high likelihood of this outcome.
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