Blake Whiteheart (CLE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+3500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
A bet on Blake Whiteheart scoring a touchdown anytime during the Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers game appears to be risky based on his recent performance and trends. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 1/7, and his home hit rate is even weaker at 0/3. Also, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, is 0 which indicates a lack of recent success. His performance over the last 5 games also doesn't provide much confidence, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 and a home hit rate of 0/3. Therefore, from a statistical perspective, placing a bet on Whiteheart to score a touchdown in this game is not strongly backed by his recent performances or ongoing trends. The model edge of 0.157539830199358 also seems relatively low, which suggests the model doesn't see a great deal of value in this prop bet.
Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers : NA +8.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Cleveland Browns at 8.5 in the spreads market is backed by a combination of the team's recent performance and the struggling home team. The Browns have a positive overall point differential (+1.4) from their last five games, compared to a heavy negative for the home team (-17). The Browns also score, on average, 22.2 points per game, which is significantly higher than the home team's 10.4. The home team's Expected Points Added (EPA) statistics also favor the Browns. The home team has a negative EPA differential in their last five games, with both their offensive and defensive EPA in the negatives. Meanwhile, the Browns' EPA differential is positive, demonstrating a more effective offense and defense. The Browns also have a higher explosive rate, indicating a more dynamic offensive performance. The home team's high turnover rate further increases the Browns' chances of covering the spread. Their records over the last five games (Browns:
Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers : Over 41.5 Total Points (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The over 41.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game is mainly influenced by both teams' scoring trends. The away team has been relatively high-scoring, averaging 22.2 points in their last five games. Meanwhile, the home team's defense has struggled, allowing an average of 27.4 points in their last five matches. This suggests a potential for a high cumulative score, surpassing the 41.5 points mark. Moreover, both teams have shown some defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in terms of EPA (Expected Points Added), a measure indicating the contribution of each play to the score of the game. The home team has a negative overall and home EPA difference in their last five games, suggesting they often allow more points than they score. The away team’s EPA against is negative, implying they often concede points. These defensive weaknesses, coupled with the away team's scoring prowess, provide a statistical rationale for an 'over' bet in this matchup.
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