Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons : NA Moneyline (+170)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Carolina Panthers to win the head-to-head (h2h) matchup primarily stems from their superior performance metrics compared to the home team. In the last five games, the Panthers have a positive overall points differential (+5.6) and a strong overall EPA differential (+7.61), indicating a more efficient offensive and defensive performance. Conversely, the home team's overall points differential and EPA differential are both negative (-8.6 and -8.52, respectively). Additionally, the Panthers have outperformed the home team in both passing and rushing EPA. While both teams have similar turnover differentials and explosive rates, the Panthers have had better control over total yards, both offensively and defensively. Historically, the Panthers also have a slightly better record against the home team (3-2). While both teams have similar recent win-loss records (2-3), the Panthers' better performance metrics provide a solid rationale for this betting decision.
Feleipe Franks (CAR) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+2500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical evidence for betting on Feleipe Franks to score a touchdown at any time during the Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons game is not convincing. In fact, the data suggests the opposite. When looking at Franks' recent performance and hit rates, he has consistently failed to score. His overall hit rate, home hit rate, and hit rate against Atlanta are all zero across multiple time frames, ranging from his last 3 games to his last 20. There is no current hit streak to speak of, either overall, at home, or against Atlanta. The statistical trends indicate that Franks is unlikely to score a touchdown, despite the model suggesting a marginal edge. Therefore, from a data-driven perspective, it would be risky to place a bet on Franks to score at any time during this game.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Chuba Hubbard to stay under 17.5 receiving yards in the player reception yards market has a strong statistical basis. Hubbard's performance against Atlanta has consistently been under the 17.5-yard threshold in the past, as evidenced by his 100% hit rate in their last 4 meetings. Furthermore, when playing at home against Atlanta, Hubbard has maintained an unblemished record of staying under this mark in all three encounters. In home games overall, Hubbard has an impressive hit rate, staying under 17.5 yards in 21 out of 24 games, including a current 14-game streak. Although his overall hit rate is slightly lower at 35/46, the specific conditions of this game - being at home and against Atlanta - have historically resulted in lower reception yards for Hubbard. This historical performance, combined with his current home hit streak, provides a compelling rationale for this bet.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro