Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Chuba Hubbard for Under 16.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is statistically compelling when analyzing his historical performance data. Hubbard shows a strong trend in this market against Atlanta, having hit the Under in all four of his previous matchups (100% hit rate). This trend is consistent both overall and at home. His home hit rate is also robust, standing at 79% overall and 80% in the last 20 games. While his overall hit rate is slightly lower at 72%, it's important to note that Hubbard is currently on a 4-game hit streak against Atlanta and a 1-game hit streak at home. Despite a model edge of just 7.16%, the consistency of Hubbard's underperformance, particularly against Atlanta, provides a strong rationale for the Under 16.5 bet.
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Carolina Panthers with a 5.5 point spread in the 'spreads' market is justified due to their superior statistical performance over the last five games. The Panthers have a positive overall point differential of 5.6, indicating they score more points than they concede on average. This is in contrast to the home team’s negative point differential of -8.6. The Panthers also show a positive EPA differential of 7.61, suggesting they make more efficient use of their possessions, while the home team has a negative EPA differential of -8.52. Additionally, the Panthers have been gaining more total yards (377.4) compared to the home team (325.6), which is a significant factor in scoring points. Although both teams have a similar recent win-loss record (2-3), the data indicate that the Panthers are performing better on the field, justifying the bet in their favor.
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the Carolina Panthers getting 5.5 points in the 'spreads' market is backed by several key statistics. Firstly, the Panthers have a better overall scoring and point differential in their last 5 games compared to their opponents. They've averaged 27.6 points per game and have a point differential of +5.6, compared to their opponents' average of 25.2 points and a differential of -8.6. This indicates the Panthers' ability to outscore their opponents. Secondly, the Panthers have also performed better in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each individual play to the team's scoring margin. Panthers' overall EPA for and against difference is positive (+7.61) while their opponents' is negative (-8.52), suggesting the Panthers are more efficient in converting their plays into points. Moreover, the Panthers have generated more total yards (377.4) than their opponents (325.6), indicating
Bryce Young (CAR) Under 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Bryce Young to run for fewer than 13.5 yards could be a smart move, based on the statistical trends. His overall hit rate for under 13.5 yards is 50% (16/32), suggesting this is a common occurrence. This pattern becomes more apparent when focusing on recent games, as he's hit the under in 4 out of his last 5 games (overall hit rate last 5: 1/5). When playing at home, his hit rate is slightly better (7/15), suggesting he may perform less well on the rushing front in home games. His hit rate against the Atlanta Falcons is also favorable to the under, with a 33% hit rate overall (1/3), and a 100% hit rate at home (1/1). The current hit streaks also support an under bet, with all streaks at zero, except for home games against Atlanta, where he's on a streak of 1 for
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