Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA Moneyline (+136)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical rationale for betting on the Cincinnati Bengals in this head-to-head (h2h) market against the home team is driven by their recent performance and the home team's struggles. The Bengals have a superior overall record in their last five games (5-0) compared to the home team's (2-3) and have won their most recent matchup against the home team. Additionally, the Bengals have shown higher offensive and defensive efficiency in their last five games. They have scored more points (24.2 to 15.6), conceded fewer points (18 to 25.8), and have a positive point difference of 6.2 compared to the home team's negative point difference of -10.2. They have also demonstrated better Expected Points Added (EPA) numbers both offensively and defensively, highlighting their superior playmaking ability on both sides of the ball. Moreover, the Bengals have been more explosive on offense and have managed to limit their opponent's big plays better
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA -3 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings -3 bet in the spreads market is primarily based on the team's superior recent performance compared to its opponent. Analyzing the teams' last 5 games, the Vikings have an overall positive point difference of 6.2 and a 5-0 overall record, suggesting they have been playing well lately. Comparatively, the home team has a negative point difference of -10.2 and a 2-3 overall record. In terms of effectiveness per attempt, the Vikings have a positive EPA difference of 6.42 compared to the home team's negative EPA difference of -12.72, indicating that the Vikings have been more efficient in their plays. Furthermore, the Vikings have a higher explosive rate (0.226) than the home team (0.20), which suggests they are more likely to make significant gains on any given play. These figures suggest a bet on the Vikings is statistically justified.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown at any time during the Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals game appears to be a risky proposition based on his recent performance and trends. Over his last five games, Jefferson has failed to score a touchdown (0/5), and he has not scored in any of his last three games (0/3). His hit rate at home over the last five games is slightly better (2/5) but still not stellar. Additionally, in his last matchup against the Bengals, Jefferson did not score (0/1). His overall touchdown hit rate is less than 50% (20/48), and his home hit rate is just under 50% (12/25). Furthermore, his current hit streaks overall, at home, and against the Bengals are all zero. Based on these statistics, betting on Jefferson to score a touchdown does not seem to be the most reliable choice.
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