Today's NBA Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds (Monday 01/26 Slate)

The Denver Nuggets are a strong bet on the point spread market for several reasons. Primarily, their record against the Memphis Grizzlies in recent matchups leans in their favor, with a 2-1 record compared to the Grizzlies' 1-2. Moreover, the Grizzlies' home record in the last five games displays a vulnerability, with a 2-3 record compared to the Nuggets' 2-3 record on the road. The Nuggets also show a lower average opponent team score in recent games, indicating a stronger defense. The Grizzlies have been outscored by opponents in their last five home games, an area where the Nuggets can capitalize. Despite the Grizzlies' higher home team score, their defense hasn't been able to keep up, giving the Nuggets an opportunity to cover the spread.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets : Denver Nuggets win (+150)

Despite the model prediction favoring the Memphis Grizzlies, the Denver Nuggets have shown a stronger performance against the Grizzlies in their last five encounters, winning two out of three games. This demonstrates a historical advantage for the Nuggets. Moreover, while both teams have an equal overall record for their last five games (2-3), the Grizzlies' home advantage seems to be diminished as indicated by their Home/Away record (4-1 Home vs 1-4 Away). In contrast, the Nuggets' lower scoring average could play to their advantage in a potentially tight, low-scoring match. Thus, betting on the Denver Nuggets in the moneyline market could be a smart move.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks : Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-112)

The Milwaukee Bucks have a stronger recent performance record, with a 3-2 win-loss ratio at home compared to the Dallas Mavericks' 1-4 away record. Furthermore, the Bucks have won their last two encounters against the Mavericks, indicating a clear dominance over them. Even though the Mavericks have a slightly higher average score, the Bucks have a better defense, as they allow fewer points to their opponents. Taking all these factors into account, betting on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 for the point spread market appears to be a sensible choice. This bet means we expect the Bucks to win by more than 1.5 points, which aligns with their recent performance and superior defense.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets : Memphis Grizzlies Over 103.5 Team Total Points (-500)

The bet on 'Memphis Grizzlies Over 103.5' in the Team Total Points market is backed by several strong statistical factors. Firstly, the model prediction for this game is 122.45, which is significantly above the outcome point of 103.5. This suggests a high likelihood that the Grizzlies will score over the point threshold. Additionally, the Grizzlies' recent offensive performance solidifies this conclusion. Their average score in the last five games is 118.8, well above the set point level. When playing at home, this average jumps to 124.6, again comfortably exceeding 103.5. Their home record also favors this bet, with 4 wins in their last 5 games. Therefore, the Grizzlies' scoring trends and the model's high prediction justify a strong bet on them scoring over 103.5 points.

San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans 11.5 (-108)

The New Orleans Pelicans have a strong record against the San Antonio Spurs, winning all of their last five matchups. Additionally, the Spurs have shown defensive weakness at home, allowing an average of 130 points in their last 5 games. This is significantly higher than the Pelicans' average of 104.2 points conceded in their away games. The Pelicans also have a decent away record, winning 3 out of their last 5 games. This, coupled with them consistently scoring above their given point spread of 11.5 in recent games, makes the bet on the Pelicans a promising one. Even though the Spurs have a higher overall L5 team score, their weak defense can allow the Pelicans to cover the spread.