Kayshon Boutte (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Kayshon Boutte to score a touchdown anytime during the New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons game is relatively weak, given Boutte's recent performance and hit rates. Boutte has not scored in his last three games overall or at home. In his last five games, Boutte has only scored once at home and not at all overall. Looking at a broader picture, Boutte's overall scoring hit rate is 3/26 and at home, it is 2/13. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero. Even though the model shows a slight edge of 0.1633, considering the player's recent performance and trends, it might be a risky bet to stake on Boutte scoring a touchdown at any time during the game.
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -5.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The New England Patriots, playing at home, have been dominant in their recent performances. They have an unblemished 5-0 record in their last 5 games, outscoring opponents by an average of 15 points per game. This includes an average of 30.6 points scored per game, and only 15.6 points allowed. Their EPA (Expected Points Added) differential of 16.9 further emphasizes their effectiveness on both sides of the ball. In contrast, the away team has struggled recently, with a 2-3 record in their last 5 games and an average point differential of -9.4. They are only scoring an average of 15.6 points per game, and allowing 25 points. Their EPA differential of -11.7 shows significant inefficiencies on both offense and defense. Given the Patriots' strong performance and the away team's struggles, it's statistically sound to take the New England Patriots -5.5 in the spreads
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons : NA Moneyline (+210)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Atlanta Falcons in the head-to-head (h2h) market is based on their superior performance in the recent games. The Falcons have an unbroken home record in the last five games (5-0), which is a significant advantage over the away team's 2-3 record. Furthermore, the Falcons have a significantly better scoring record, with an average of 30.6 points scored and 15.6 points conceded per game. This contrasts with the away team's average of 15.6 points scored and 25 points conceded. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), the Falcons also outperform the away team with an overall positive EPA difference of 16.91 compared to the away team's negative EPA difference of -11.74. This indicates that the Falcons are more efficient in both offense and defense. The Falcons also boast a better turnover differential and explosive play rate, enhancing their chances of winning. The data-driven model further supports this with
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