Ray Davis (BUF) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Ray Davis to rush for under 21.5 yards seems statistically sound based on his recent performance and trends. Looking at his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, he has consistently fallen short of this mark, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, 3/10, and 8/20 respectively. His hit rate at home is also low, with him hitting the mark only 5 times out of 11 and 4 times out of 10 in the last 20 and 10 home games respectively. While he has a slightly better hit rate against Miami, it's still not convincing, with a 1/2 record both overall and at home. The only positive streak is against Miami at home, but it's based on a single game. Coupled with the model edge of 0.1799 favoring the under, it suggests that Davis is statistically unlikely to exceed
Khalil Shakir (BUF) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The data suggests that betting on Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown anytime during the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins game may not be a reliable wager. Shakir's overall hit rate is 7 out of 50, which translates to a success rate of just 14%. His performance at home games is slightly better, but still low at 5 out of 30 (16.7%). Against Miami, his hit rate is non-existent, indicating he has not scored a touchdown against them in their last 4 encounters. Furthermore, Shakir has not scored in his last 5 games overall, and his last 5 home games, indicating he is not currently in scoring form. Although the model suggests an edge of 0.179646487605832, considering Shakir's recent performance and hit rates, the data does not provide strong support for this bet.
Keon Coleman (BUF) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically, betting on Keon Coleman to score a touchdown at any time during the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins game appears to be a risky proposition. Coleman's recent performance and trends do not suggest a high likelihood of him scoring. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is just 4/18, with a current hit streak of zero. His performance at home games is also underwhelming, with a hit rate of only 2/9. Furthermore, when playing against the Miami Dolphins, his hit rate drops to 0/2 overall and remains the same for home games. Coleman's performance in the last three to five games indicates no improvements, with no touchdowns scored. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on Coleman to score a touchdown at any time during the game seems to be a long shot.
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