Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Zach Charbonnet to have Under 46.5 rushing yards is supported by his recent performance and current hit streaks. Charbonnet has not been successful in achieving this mark in recent games both overall and at home, with an overall current hit streak of 0 and home current hit streak of 0. In his last 5 games, his hit rate has been 0/5 overall and 0/5 at home. Even with a 10-game lens, he has only hit the mark twice in home games. Furthermore, Charbonnet's performance specifically against San Francisco doesn't provide confidence for this bet. Although he has a current hit streak of 3 against San Francisco, his hit rate at home against them is only 1/2. Given these stats, Zach Charbonnet is more likely to stay under 46.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against the 49ers.
Bo Nix (DEN) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, a bet on Bo Nix to go Under 22.5 rushing yards in the Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills game seems to be a statistically sound choice. Nix's recent performance data strongly indicates a trend of falling short of this mark. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 0/20, meaning he hasn't surpassed 22.5 rushing yards in any of these games. This trend is consistent, both overall and at home. Despite being the home team, Nix's home hit rate is also unimpressive, with just 4 successful outcomes in 17 games. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, stand at zero. This negative trend combined with a model edge of 0.193742111063203, which gives us a strong statistical advantage, makes the Under 22.5 bet for Nix's rushing yards a compelling option.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 6.5 Receptions (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have over 6.5 receptions in the game between Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers would be considered statistically unfavorable. While Smith-Njigba has an overall hit rate of 19/51, his performance against the 49ers specifically is less promising, with a hit rate of just 1/4. This further decreases to 0/2 when playing against the 49ers at home. Although Smith-Njigba's current home hit streak is at 2, his overall current hit streak is at 0, suggesting his recent performance is inconsistent. His performance at home is also not overly convincing, with a hit rate of 8/25. Although the model edge is 0.19347152259891, suggesting there is some advantage in this bet, the specific stats against the 49ers and the player's inconsistent recent performance make this bet a risky one. The statistical evidence supports the likelihood
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 6.5 Player receptions alternate (-119)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Despite some patchy performance against San Francisco in the past, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has overall shown a strong ability to make over 6.5 receptions. His overall hit rate over the last 10 games stands at 70% and even more impressively, his home hit rate over the last 10 games is an identical 70%. This suggests he performs consistently well in home conditions, which will be the case in the upcoming match against the 49ers. His recent form is also encouraging, with a 4 out of 5 hit rate in his last five games. While his record specifically against the 49ers and at home against the 49ers is less stellar, his high hit rates overall and at home, combined with a model edge of 0.1905, indicate that betting on Smith-Njigba to make over 6.5 receptions is a statistically sound choice.
Hunter Henry (NE) Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly suggests that betting on Hunter Henry for Under 39.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a logical choice. Henry’s recent performance indicates a consistent trend of not hitting the mark. In the last 20 overall games, he only surpassed 39.5 yards 2 times. Moreover, in his last 10 home games, he failed to exceed 39.5 yards. His performance against the Houston Texans also reinforces this trend, as he has not hit the target in any of his previous encounters. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, stand at zero, further highlighting his struggle to surpass this yardage. With a model edge of 0.1882, the data clearly indicates that Henry is likely to fall short of 39.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Texans.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 6.5 Receptions (-122)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting over 6.5 on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's player receptions may not be the best choice considering his performance against San Francisco and at home. His hit rate against San Francisco is significantly low at 1/4 overall, and even worse at home with a 0/2 hit rate. This trend is consistent across the board with a hit rate of 1/4 in the last 10 and 20 games and 0/2 at home in the same periods. However, Smith-Njigba's overall home performance is slightly better with a hit rate of 2/3 in the last 3 games and a current hit streak of 2. His overall hit rate also supports this bet with a 19/51 outcome. Though the model edge is 0.184561513688901, indicating a potential for winning, the poor performance against San Francisco, particularly at home, may outweigh this slight edge. Therefore, the bet is quite
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