Hunter Henry (NE) Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly suggests that betting on Hunter Henry for Under 39.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a logical choice. Henry’s recent performance indicates a consistent trend of not hitting the mark. In the last 20 overall games, he only surpassed 39.5 yards 2 times. Moreover, in his last 10 home games, he failed to exceed 39.5 yards. His performance against the Houston Texans also reinforces this trend, as he has not hit the target in any of his previous encounters. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, stand at zero, further highlighting his struggle to surpass this yardage. With a model edge of 0.1882, the data clearly indicates that Henry is likely to fall short of 39.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Texans.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-312)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistics strongly favor a bet on Rhamondre Stevenson for Over 1.5 in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market in the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game. Stevenson has been consistently performing well, with an overall hit rate of 45/59 and a home hit rate of 24/29. His recent performance is even more promising, as his hit rate over the last 5 games is a perfect 5/5 overall and 4/5 at home. Furthermore, Stevenson is currently on a 6-game hit streak overall and a 4-game hit streak at home, showing an upward trend in his performance. In the last 20 games, he has hit over 1.5 receptions 12 times overall and 15 times at home, further strengthening the rationale for this bet. The model edge of 0.184141606538959 indicates a positive expected value for the bet.
Austin Hooper (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+650)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, betting on Austin Hooper to score a touchdown at any time during the Patriots versus Texans game would not be a sound choice. Hooper's overall scoring rate is low, with only 4 touchdowns in 64 games. More specifically, his record against the Texans is particularly poor, with no touchdowns in 3 matches. His performance at home is also not promising, with only one touchdown in 31 games. Looking closely at his recent performance, Hooper has not scored a touchdown in his last 10 games overall, his last 5 home games, and his last 3 games against the Texans. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, further indicating his lack of scoring success. Therefore, the statistical analysis suggests a bet for 'Yes' on Austin Hooper scoring a touchdown in this game would be a risky proposition.
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