Bo Nix (DEN) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, a bet on Bo Nix to go Under 22.5 rushing yards in the Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills game seems to be a statistically sound choice. Nix's recent performance data strongly indicates a trend of falling short of this mark. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 0/20, meaning he hasn't surpassed 22.5 rushing yards in any of these games. This trend is consistent, both overall and at home. Despite being the home team, Nix's home hit rate is also unimpressive, with just 4 successful outcomes in 17 games. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, stand at zero. This negative trend combined with a model edge of 0.193742111063203, which gives us a strong statistical advantage, makes the Under 22.5 bet for Nix's rushing yards a compelling option.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Courtland Sutton to score a touchdown anytime during the Denver Broncos game against the Buffalo Bills appears statistically unfavorable. Sutton's recent performance and hit rates indicate a low probability of him scoring. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is just 2/20, and he has not scored in any of his last 10 games. His performance at home likewise shows a low hit rate of 4/20 over the last 20 games, with no touchdowns in the last five home games. Although his hit rate against the Buffalo Bills is 1/1, this is based on a single game and therefore not a reliable indicator of future performance. Despite the model's edge of 0.157, Sutton's recent and overall performance trends suggest a low likelihood of him scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game.
Troy Franklin (DEN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical trends strongly favor the Under 20.5 bet for Troy Franklin's reception yards in the Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills game. Looking at Franklin's recent performance, he has consistently fallen short of this mark. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 2/20, and at home, it's 6/17. Even more telling, his hit rate over the last 5 games, both overall and at home, is 0/5. This indicates that Franklin has been struggling to make significant yardage in recent games. His overall current hit streak is also at zero, suggesting that he hasn't managed to outperform this bet in recent matches. Considering these trends and the model edge of 0.141 (14.1%), betting Under 20.5 on Franklin's receiving yards in this game seems to be a statistically sound decision.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro