Best NFL Parlay Picks Today, Wednesday 01/14 (5-Leg)

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has struggled recently, with an overall and home hit rate of 0 in his last 5 and 10 games, his performance against the San Francisco 49ers is a compelling reason to bet over 24.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. Smith-Njigba has consistently performed well against this specific opponent, with a hit rate of 100% in his last 3, 5, 10, and overall games against San Francisco. This trend is also consistent when playing at home versus this team, with a 100% hit rate in his last 3, 5, 10, and overall home games against the 49ers. Furthermore, he is currently on a 4-game hit streak against San Francisco, and a 2-game hit streak at home against them. Thus, despite his overall recent struggles, his specific success against the 49ers makes a strong case for betting over

Drake Maye (NE) Over 149.5 Player pass yds alternate (-1429)

Based on the data provided, the bet on Drake Maye to surpass 149.5 passing yards in the game between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans is not strongly supported. Maye's recent performance has been below this level, with a zero-hit streak in his last three games overall, at home, and a zero-hit streak in his last 5 and 10 overall games. His overall hit rate is 9/31, suggesting he surpasses this mark less than a third of the time. While his performance against the Texans has been strong, with a 100% hit rate in his last three, five, ten, and twenty games, this is based on a single game sample size each time - not enough to draw a solid conclusion. While there is a small model edge of 0.0506814850828068, the consistency of his underperformance suggests betting on Maye to overperform would be a high-risk move.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-312)

The statistics strongly favor a bet on Rhamondre Stevenson for Over 1.5 in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market in the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game. Stevenson has been consistently performing well, with an overall hit rate of 45/59 and a home hit rate of 24/29. His recent performance is even more promising, as his hit rate over the last 5 games is a perfect 5/5 overall and 4/5 at home. Furthermore, Stevenson is currently on a 6-game hit streak overall and a 4-game hit streak at home, showing an upward trend in his performance. In the last 20 games, he has hit over 1.5 receptions 12 times overall and 15 times at home, further strengthening the rationale for this bet. The model edge of 0.184141606538959 indicates a positive expected value for the bet.

Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-400)

The statistical data for Kayshon Boutte doesn't instill substantial confidence for a bet on Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. Boutte's overall hit rate is less than 50% (12/33) and his recent performance trend is not promising; he has failed to hit the mark in his last ten games (0/10). His home hit rate is slightly better but still unimpressive (7/18). However, it's worth noting that Boutte has a perfect record against the Houston Texans, both overall and at home (1/1). This indicates that he tends to perform better against this specific opponent, which could be a vital factor in this matchup. While the model edge of 0.1401 suggests a slight advantage, given Boutte's recent and overall hit rates, this bet should be approached with caution. It seems like a risky proposition unless you strongly believe in Boutte's specific performance against