Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Zach Charbonnet to have Under 46.5 rushing yards is supported by his recent performance and current hit streaks. Charbonnet has not been successful in achieving this mark in recent games both overall and at home, with an overall current hit streak of 0 and home current hit streak of 0. In his last 5 games, his hit rate has been 0/5 overall and 0/5 at home. Even with a 10-game lens, he has only hit the mark twice in home games. Furthermore, Charbonnet's performance specifically against San Francisco doesn't provide confidence for this bet. Although he has a current hit streak of 3 against San Francisco, his hit rate at home against them is only 1/2. Given these stats, Zach Charbonnet is more likely to stay under 46.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against the 49ers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 6.5 Receptions (-122)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting over 6.5 on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's player receptions may not be the best choice considering his performance against San Francisco and at home. His hit rate against San Francisco is significantly low at 1/4 overall, and even worse at home with a 0/2 hit rate. This trend is consistent across the board with a hit rate of 1/4 in the last 10 and 20 games and 0/2 at home in the same periods. However, Smith-Njigba's overall home performance is slightly better with a hit rate of 2/3 in the last 3 games and a current hit streak of 2. His overall hit rate also supports this bet with a 19/51 outcome. Though the model edge is 0.184561513688901, indicating a potential for winning, the poor performance against San Francisco, particularly at home, may outweigh this slight edge. Therefore, the bet is quite
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 49.5 Player reception yds alternate (-833)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically speaking, betting over 49.5 for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market appears risky. Smith-Njigba has been underperforming recently, with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in his last three games and 0/5 in his last five. Even at home, his performance hasn't improved, maintaining the same hit rates. His overall hit rate is only 16/51, and his home hit rate is 8/25, both of which are relatively low. However, his stats improve slightly against the 49ers, with a hit rate of 2/3 in the last three games and 2/4 overall. Additionally, Smith-Njigba is currently on a two-game hit streak against the 49ers, and a one-game streak at home. Despite this, the overall data suggests the likelihood of him reaching over 49.5 reception yards is relatively low.
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