Darnell Washington (PIT) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Darnell Washington to go under 22.5 reception yards is supported by his recent performance and overall trends. Washington's recent performance has been underwhelming, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 0 in his last 5 games. His performance at home has been similarly disappointing, with a hit rate of 0 in his last 5 home games. Further supporting the under bet is his overall hit rate of 17 out of 33 games and a home hit rate of 8 out of 17 games, indicating that he falls below the 22.5 yards threshold more often than not. His current hit streak is also 0, both overall and at home, suggesting that his recent form is unlikely to improve in the upcoming game against the Miami Dolphins. The model edge of 0.1946 also suggests a statistical advantage in favor of the under bet.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Pat Freiermuth for Under 17.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is backed by his recent performance and trends. Freiermuth's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is low at 2/20, implying that he's only surpassed 17.5 yards in 10% of these games. His performance at home is slightly better, but still low with a hit rate of 4/20. Against Miami, his hit rate is 0/1, indicating he didn't surpass 17.5 yards in their previous encounter. Looking at more recent trends, Freiermuth's performance remains weak. In the last 5 games overall and at home, he has a hit rate of 0/5. His hit rate against Miami in their last meeting remains 0/1. With a current hit streak of 0 across all categories, betting on Freiermuth to stay under 17.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Pat Freiermuth for Under 15.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins game is statistically justified based on Freiermuth's past performance. Freiermuth has a dismal overall hit rate of 7/56, which equates to a success rate of just 12.5%. Moreover, his performance at home is not much better, with a hit rate of 4/24 or 16.7%. When playing against the Miami Dolphins, Freiermuth has not surpassed the 15.5 yard mark in his only encounter. Recent performance indicators also support this bet, as Freiermuth has failed to hit the mark in his last 5, 10, and 20 games overall, at home, and against Miami. Given these statistics, and the model edge of 8.04%, betting the Under on Freiermuth's reception yards seems a data-driven choice.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical analysis strongly suggests betting on Jaylen Warren to fall under 15.5 reception yards in the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins. Firstly, Warren's recent performance has been less than stellar, with his overall hit rate for the last 20 games standing at just 2/20 and his home hit rate at 6/20. Warren's specific performance against the Dolphins also does not engender confidence, with a hit rate of 0/1. His recent form is also unimpressive, as he hasn't hit in any of his last 5 overall and home games, and his current hit streak is at zero. Even when looking at Warren's overall performance, his hit rate stands at a relatively low 22/62. The model edge of approximately 5.8% further reinforces the under 15.5 bet. Hence, based on these statistics, it would be prudent to bet under on Warren's reception yards.
Calvin Austin III (PIT) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Analyzing Calvin Austin III's recent performance and trends, it's statistically reasonable to bet Under 13.5 on 'player_reception_yds'. Austin III's average in his last five games appears to be lower than the proposed 13.5 yards, which indicates a trend of not meeting this mark. Moreover, the Steelers have been strong defensively against the pass, reducing the opportunities for receivers to rack up significant yards. The model edge, a measure of the expected value of this bet, is positive at 0.031, suggesting that there's a higher probability of this outcome. Furthermore, the Dolphins' passing offense has not been particularly potent, which further reduces Austin III's chances of exceeding 13.5 reception yards. Therefore, statistically, betting Under 13.5 yards for Austin III seems to be a solid choice.
Calvin Austin III (PIT) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Calvin Austin III to finish under 13.5 reception yards in the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins game makes sense when considering his recent performance. Austin III hasn't been a significant part of the Steelers' passing game, with a low average in his last five games. His hit rate for staying under this line is also high, indicating a trend that is likely to continue. The model edge, although small, indicates that the probability of this outcome is slightly higher than what the market reflects. Furthermore, the Steelers' run-heavy strategy and strong defense from the Dolphins against wide receivers might limit Austin III's opportunities. Therefore, statistically speaking, it's a safer bet to go for 'Under' 13.5 for Calvin Austin III in the 'player_reception_yds' market.
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