Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Picks (Pat Freiermuth Impact) : Odds & Edges

The bet on Pat Freiermuth for Under 15.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins game is statistically justified based on Freiermuth's past performance. Freiermuth has a dismal overall hit rate of 7/56, which equates to a success rate of just 12.5%. Moreover, his performance at home is not much better, with a hit rate of 4/24 or 16.7%. When playing against the Miami Dolphins, Freiermuth has not surpassed the 15.5 yard mark in his only encounter. Recent performance indicators also support this bet, as Freiermuth has failed to hit the mark in his last 5, 10, and 20 games overall, at home, and against Miami. Given these statistics, and the model edge of 8.04%, betting the Under on Freiermuth's reception yards seems a data-driven choice.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : NA -3 Point Spread (-118)

Betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers -3 in the spreads market is a statistically sound decision, given the team's recent performance and comparison with the home team. The Steelers have a superior overall record in the last 5 games (4-1) compared to the home team (2-3). Furthermore, they also have a better L5 point differential (+5.2), indicating they are winning by larger margins. The Steelers' superior EPA (Expected Points Added) differential also supports this bet. The Steelers have an overall L5 EPA differential of +7.32 compared to the home team's -1.70, indicating they are more efficient in turning their plays into points. Also, the Steelers have a better turnover differential, which means they are more successful in maintaining possession and preventing the opponent from scoring. Moreover, the Steelers have been more successful in limiting their opponents' explosive plays, with an L5 explosive rate against of 0.199, compared to the home team's 0

Jaylen Warren (PIT) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Statistical analysis strongly suggests betting on Jaylen Warren to fall under 15.5 reception yards in the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins. Firstly, Warren's recent performance has been less than stellar, with his overall hit rate for the last 20 games standing at just 2/20 and his home hit rate at 6/20. Warren's specific performance against the Dolphins also does not engender confidence, with a hit rate of 0/1. His recent form is also unimpressive, as he hasn't hit in any of his last 5 overall and home games, and his current hit streak is at zero. Even when looking at Warren's overall performance, his hit rate stands at a relatively low 22/62. The model edge of approximately 5.8% further reinforces the under 15.5 bet. Hence, based on these statistics, it would be prudent to bet under on Warren's reception yards.

Calvin Austin III (PIT) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Analyzing Calvin Austin III's recent performance and trends, it's statistically reasonable to bet Under 13.5 on 'player_reception_yds'. Austin III's average in his last five games appears to be lower than the proposed 13.5 yards, which indicates a trend of not meeting this mark. Moreover, the Steelers have been strong defensively against the pass, reducing the opportunities for receivers to rack up significant yards. The model edge, a measure of the expected value of this bet, is positive at 0.031, suggesting that there's a higher probability of this outcome. Furthermore, the Dolphins' passing offense has not been particularly potent, which further reduces Austin III's chances of exceeding 13.5 reception yards. Therefore, statistically, betting Under 13.5 yards for Austin III seems to be a solid choice.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : Over 42.5 Total Points (-108)

The bet on 'Over 42.5' in the totals market for this NFL game is primarily based on the scoring patterns of both teams. The home team's last five games have seen an average of 44.4 points scored (21.2 by them, 23.2 against), while the away team's corresponding figure is 37.6 (21.4 scored, 16.2 against). Both these averages are close to or exceed the over/under line of 42.5. Moreover, both teams have shown an ability to generate explosive plays. The home team's explosive rate for (0.173) and against (0.217) and the away team's explosive rate for (0.219) and against (0.199) indicate that both teams are capable of and susceptible to big plays, which often lead to high-scoring games. Additionally, the home team's model edge of 0.027 suggests that the model sees value in this over