Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : NA Moneyline (+140)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Miami Dolphins in the head-to-head (h2h) market is justified by their superior performance in recent games. The Dolphins have a better overall record in their last five games (4-1) compared to the home team's record (2-3). They have also outperformed the home team in scoring, with an average point differential of +5.2 compared to the home team's -2. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each play to the score of the game, the Dolphins have a positive EPA for (+2.64) and against (-4.68) over the last five games, indicating that they have been more efficient in both offense and defense. Their explosive rate for (0.22) is also higher than the home team's (0.17), suggesting they have made more big plays. Furthermore, the Dolphins have performed better in their last five games against this opponent (1-0)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : NA -3 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for the bet on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 in the 'spreads' market is based on the team's recent performance data. The Steelers have a superior overall record in the last five games (4-1) compared to the home team's record (2-3). This is suggestive of their stronger form. Moreover, the Steelers' recent away record (2-3) is on par with the home team's home record (3-2), implying that they haven't been significantly disadvantaged when playing away. In terms of scoring, the Steelers have a better point differential, both overall (+5.2) and away (+2), signifying their better offensive and defensive performance. Their overall and away EPA (Expected Points Added) differentials are also positive, indicating efficient play. Finally, the Steelers have previously won against the same opponent, which might boost their confidence. Therefore, these factors combined provide a strong statistical rationale for betting on the Steelers to cover the spread.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Pat Freiermuth for Under 15.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins game is statistically justified based on Freiermuth's past performance. Freiermuth has a dismal overall hit rate of 7/56, which equates to a success rate of just 12.5%. Moreover, his performance at home is not much better, with a hit rate of 4/24 or 16.7%. When playing against the Miami Dolphins, Freiermuth has not surpassed the 15.5 yard mark in his only encounter. Recent performance indicators also support this bet, as Freiermuth has failed to hit the mark in his last 5, 10, and 20 games overall, at home, and against Miami. Given these statistics, and the model edge of 8.04%, betting the Under on Freiermuth's reception yards seems a data-driven choice.
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