Today's NFL Best Bets (Tuesday 12/16 Slate)

The bet on the Miami Dolphins in the head-to-head (h2h) market is justified by their superior performance in recent games. The Dolphins have a better overall record in their last five games (4-1) compared to the home team's record (2-3). They have also outperformed the home team in scoring, with an average point differential of +5.2 compared to the home team's -2. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each play to the score of the game, the Dolphins have a positive EPA for (+2.64) and against (-4.68) over the last five games, indicating that they have been more efficient in both offense and defense. Their explosive rate for (0.22) is also higher than the home team's (0.17), suggesting they have made more big plays. Furthermore, the Dolphins have performed better in their last five games against this opponent (1-0)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : NA -3 Point Spread (-112)

The rationale for the bet on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 in the 'spreads' market is based on the team's recent performance data. The Steelers have a superior overall record in the last five games (4-1) compared to the home team's record (2-3). This is suggestive of their stronger form. Moreover, the Steelers' recent away record (2-3) is on par with the home team's home record (3-2), implying that they haven't been significantly disadvantaged when playing away. In terms of scoring, the Steelers have a better point differential, both overall (+5.2) and away (+2), signifying their better offensive and defensive performance. Their overall and away EPA (Expected Points Added) differentials are also positive, indicating efficient play. Finally, the Steelers have previously won against the same opponent, which might boost their confidence. Therefore, these factors combined provide a strong statistical rationale for betting on the Steelers to cover the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : NA -3 Point Spread (-118)

Betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers -3 in the spreads market is a statistically sound decision, given the team's recent performance and comparison with the home team. The Steelers have a superior overall record in the last 5 games (4-1) compared to the home team (2-3). Furthermore, they also have a better L5 point differential (+5.2), indicating they are winning by larger margins. The Steelers' superior EPA (Expected Points Added) differential also supports this bet. The Steelers have an overall L5 EPA differential of +7.32 compared to the home team's -1.70, indicating they are more efficient in turning their plays into points. Also, the Steelers have a better turnover differential, which means they are more successful in maintaining possession and preventing the opponent from scoring. Moreover, the Steelers have been more successful in limiting their opponents' explosive plays, with an L5 explosive rate against of 0.199, compared to the home team's 0

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : Over 42.5 Total Points (-108)

The bet on 'Over 42.5' in the totals market for this NFL game is primarily based on the scoring patterns of both teams. The home team's last five games have seen an average of 44.4 points scored (21.2 by them, 23.2 against), while the away team's corresponding figure is 37.6 (21.4 scored, 16.2 against). Both these averages are close to or exceed the over/under line of 42.5. Moreover, both teams have shown an ability to generate explosive plays. The home team's explosive rate for (0.173) and against (0.217) and the away team's explosive rate for (0.219) and against (0.199) indicate that both teams are capable of and susceptible to big plays, which often lead to high-scoring games. Additionally, the home team's model edge of 0.027 suggests that the model sees value in this over

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins : Over 42.5 Total Points (-110)

The bet on Over 42.5 in the 'totals' market is driven by several key statistics. Firstly, the average scores for both teams over the last five games have been above 21 points, indicating a combined score of 42, which is close to the line. Specifically, the home team has an average of 21.2 points, while the away team scores an average of 21.4 points. Additionally, the home team's scoring against average is 23.2 points, and the away team's is 16.2 points. Moreover, both teams have been involved in high scoring games with the away team's 'score against' average being higher at 21.8. The home team's 'score for' average is also high at 23.2, implying that both teams have the potential to score high. Finally, the explosive rate for both teams indicates a higher probability of scoring big plays which can lead to higher scores. Hence, based on