Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Thursday 01/15 (Bo Nix Focus)

The under 46.5 rushing yards bet for Zach Charbonnet in the Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers game appears to be a strong option, based on recent performance and hit rates. Charbonnet has been struggling to surpass the 46.5 rushing yards mark, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 and a home hit rate of 0/5 in his last five appearances. His overall performance in the last 10 games also reinforces this trend, with an overall hit rate of 0/10. While Charbonnet has done well against San Francisco in general, with a hit rate of 3/4, his performance at home against this team is less stellar with a hit rate of only 1/2. Given these statistics, the under 46.5 bet appears to be the safer option, especially considering Charbonnet's current hit streak of 0 in overall and home games. The model edge of 0.198430336580155

Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 39.5 Player reception yds alternate (+132)

The betting data for Kayshon Boutte suggests a cautious approach to the 'Over 39.5' bet in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. Boutte's recent performance exhibits a downward trend, with an overall hit rate of 6 out of 33 and a current hit streak of zero. His hit rate at home is also low at 4 out of 18, and his overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 3 out of 20. Although Boutte has a perfect hit rate against Houston (1/1), and specifically at home against Houston (1/1), this data is based on a single occurrence, which isn't statistically significant enough to confidently predict future performance. Finally, the model edge of 0.197928471917516 indicates a less than 20% advantage over the bookmaker's line, suggesting this bet carries substantial risk. Given these statistics, betting on Boutte to go over 39

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 6.5 Receptions (-116)

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba's performance appears inconsistent when considering his record against the San Francisco 49ers, his overall and recent home performance statistics suggest a favorable bet on 'Over 6.5' in the 'player_receptions' market. Smith-Njigba's overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 70%, and his home hit rate mirrors this at 70%. This trend continues in the last five games, with an overall hit rate of 80% and a home hit rate of 60%. Although his hit rate against the 49ers is low (25% in the last 10 games, and 25% overall), his current hit streak of two at home shows positive momentum. The provided model edge of 0.196 further supports this bet, indicating a nearly 20% advantage over the set line. Despite his less promising performance against the 49ers, Smith-Njigba's recent overall and home stats tilt the odds in

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 6.5 Player receptions alternate (-118)

While the bet on Jaxon Smith-Njigba for over 6.5 receptions does carry some risk, there are reasons to be confident. The model provides an edge of 0.193, suggesting a potential for a profitable bet. Smith-Njigba's overall hit rate over the last 10 games is promising at 70%, and his hit rate at home over the same period is identical. However, his success rate specifically against the 49ers is lower (25% over the last 10 games), and he has yet to exceed 6.5 receptions against the 49ers at home. Nonetheless, his current performance streak at home is positive, with a hit streak of 2. Thus, while his historical performance against the 49ers is a concern, his recent overall and home performance suggest he could surpass the 6.5 receptions mark in the upcoming game.

Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 19.5 Player reception yds alternate (-250)

Based on the data provided, placing a bet on Kayshon Boutte to exceed 19.5 yards in receptions has a questionable outlook. His overall hit rate is 10 out of 33 attempts, which is less than one-third of the time. In the last 5 and 10 games, he has no hits, indicating a negative trend in performance. His performance at home is slighty better, but still low with a hit rate of 7 out of 18. However, a glimmer of hope is seen in his performance against the Houston Texans, where he has a hit rate of 1 out of 1, both overall and at home. This suggests that he performs well against this particular team. Despite this, considering his overall performance and recent trend, betting on Boutte to exceed 19.5 reception yards is a risky bet. His performance against the Texans is an outlier and may not be a reliable predictor of future success.