Best NFL Parlay Picks Today, Thursday 01/15 (7-Leg)

Betting on Kayshon Boutte for Over 0.5 in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market is statistically reasonable. Boutte has consistently demonstrated reliable performance, with a current overall hit streak of 6 games. Within his last 5 games, he has a perfect overall hit rate (5/5), and a strong home hit rate (4/5), indicating a consistent performance regardless of location. His record against the Houston Texans adds further confidence, as he has a perfect hit rate (1/1) both overall and at home against them. Moreover, his long-term performance is equally impressive. Out of the last 20 games, Boutte hit the Over 0.5 mark 19 times overall and 16 times at home. Against the Texans, Boutte has hit the mark every time. With a model edge of 0.055, this bet on Boutte to achieve Over 0.5 receptions strikes a good balance between risk and potential return

Drake Maye (NE) Over 149.5 Player pass yds alternate (-1111)

Statistical analysis of Drake Maye's recent performance and betting trends suggests caution in backing an Over 149.5 bet in the 'player_pass_yds_alternate' market. Maye has struggled in recent games, failing to hit the Over in his last 3 and 5 overall and home games, and achieving no current hit streak. His overall hit rate is less than a third (9/31). However, his record against the Texans is a positive outlier, hitting the Over in their previous encounter, both overall and at home. It's worth noting this is based on a single game, which carries the risk of not being representative of a consistent trend. While the model edge indicates a slight advantage, it's relatively small (6.78%). Given his overall poor performance, the bet seems risky, unless you strongly believe that Maye's previous success against the Texans specifically will play out again.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 49.5 Player reception yds alternate (-909)

The betting rationale for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go Over 49.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is not particularly strong based on his recent performances and hit rates. His overall current hit streak is at zero, and his overall hit rate over his last 20 games is just 1/20. Additionally, his home and overall hit rates in his last 5, 10, and 20 games are not promising, all yielding zero or extremely low hit rates. However, Smith-Njigba does show some promise when playing against the San Francisco 49ers. His vs_SF hit rate is 2/4 overall, and he currently holds a hit streak of 2 against them. Even when playing at home vs_SF, he has a hit rate of 1/2, which indicates a 50% success rate. Therefore, while his general statistics are not promising, his specific performance against the 49ers may make this bet

Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1250)

Statistically speaking, betting on Kayshon Boutte to exceed 4.5 reception yards seems risky considering his recent performance. Boutte's overall and home hit rates for the last 3, 5, and 10 games have been extremely poor, with a complete miss in the last 5 games. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is only 25% and his home hit rate in the same period is slightly better at 44.44%. However, there's a glimmer of optimism when considering Boutte's performance specifically against the Houston Texans. He has a 100% hit rate against this team, both overall and at home, although it's important to note this is based on a very limited sample size of only one game. In summary, while Boutte's track record against the Texans provides some hope, his recent underwhelming form suggests caution should be exercised when betting on him to exceed 4.5 reception yards in this matchup.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-345)

Betting on Rhamondre Stevenson for Over 1.5 in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market for the Patriots vs Texans game is a statistically sound decision. Stevenson's overall hit rate is impressive, with 45 out of 59 bets hitting overall and 24 out of 29 hitting at home. His recent performance indicates a strong trend, with a 100% hit rate over the last 3 and 5 games, both overall and at home. This extends to a 70% hit rate over the last 10 games. Stevenson is also currently on a hit streak, with 6 consecutive hits overall and 4 at home. His model edge of 0.1665 also suggests a significant advantage. Therefore, based on Stevenson's consistent performance and current momentum, there's a high probability of him receiving over 1.5 passes in the upcoming game against the Texans.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-833)

Betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to go over 4.5 receiving yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market appears to be a risky proposition given the recent and overall trends. Stevenson has shown a consistent pattern of falling short in this area, with an overall hit rate of 31/59 and a hit rate of just 16/29 at home. His recent record is even more discouraging, with zero successes over his last 5 attempts both overall and at home. Furthermore, he's currently on a hit streak of zero. While the model edge of 0.0485 suggests a potential value, the recent and overall performance statistics indicate that Stevenson has struggled to consistently surpass this benchmark. It's crucial to weigh these considerations before placing the bet.