Bo Nix (DEN) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests a strong rationale for betting on Bo Nix to stay under 22.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game. Over his last 20 games, Nix has been unable to exceed this mark, as indicated by an overall hit rate of 0/20. This trend holds even when considering his performance in home games, where his hit rate stands at a low 4/17. Furthermore, looking at his overall performance, Nix has only been able to exceed 22.5 rushing yards 7 times out of 35 games, a hit rate less than 20%. His recent form also points to a similar outcome, as he has not exceeded this mark in his last 5 games. Given these statistics, the betting model's edge of 0.199 is significant, hence supporting the bet for Nix to stay under 22.5 rushing yards.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Courtland Sutton's recent performance does not inspire confidence in placing a bet for him to score a touchdown in the game against the Buffalo Bills. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games stands at a lowly 2/20, while his home hit rate fares slightly better at 4/20. His recent form is also not encouraging with an overall hit rate of 0/5 in his last 5 games and a current overall hit streak of 0. However, a glimmer of hope exists in his track record against the Bills. Sutton has scored in his only previous encounter against the Bills, giving him a 100% hit rate. This suggests that Sutton could potentially perform well against this particular opponent again. Despite this, the model's edge of only 0.169 indicates a relatively low probability that Sutton will score. In conclusion, the bet seems risky due to Sutton's underwhelming recent form, despite his past success against the Bills.
Troy Franklin (DEN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Troy Franklin for Under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market seems statistically justified given Franklin's recent performance and hit rates. Reviewing his last 5 games, he has consistently missed the mark, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 and home hit rate of 0/5. This pattern extends to a broader view, with Franklin showing an overall hit rate of only 2/20 in his last 20 games and a home hit rate of 6/17. Even looking at his overall career, Franklin's hit rate is weak at 11/34 total and 6/17 at home. He is also currently on a non-hit streak both overall and at home. Given these stats, the model edge of 0.132931362396688 further supports the bet. The data indicates that Franklin's reception yards are likely to remain under 20.5 in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills.
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