Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 3.5 Player receptions alternate (+211)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the over 3.5 receptions for Rhamondre Stevenson in the New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans game is not very strong. Stevenson's recent performance and trends suggest a lack of consistency in surpassing this threshold. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is only 2/20, indicating he has only surpassed 3.5 receptions 10% of the time. The same trend is evident in his home hit rate, where he has only surpassed this threshold 20% of the time in the last 20 home games. Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is at zero, showing he has not recently been surpassing this threshold. This lack of consistency in Stevenson's performance doesn't provide a strong statistical backing to confidently bet on over 3.5 receptions.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Rhamondre Stevenson for under 36.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market is supported by his recent performance and historical trends. Stevenson has consistently fallen short in the rush yards category, as evidenced by his 0/5 hit rate in the last five games overall and at home. This trend extends further, with a 0/10 hit rate in his last 10 games overall and just 1/10 at home. Moreover, his overall hit rate is 14/59, and it's even lower at home, where he's achieved the outcome only 6/29 times. It's also noteworthy that Stevenson has no current hit streak, which suggests a lack of momentum in his performance. Given these statistics, it seems probable that Stevenson will not exceed 36.5 rush yards in the upcoming game against the Houston Texans. The model's edge of 0.092 also supports this conclusion.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to score a touchdown anytime during the Patriots vs. Texans game seems like a risky proposition given the recent performance data. Stevenson's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 5%, with his home hit rate slightly better at 25%. Over his last 10 games, both overall and home, he hasn't scored a touchdown. In fact, he hasn't found the end zone in any of his last 5 games, whether home or away. Moreover, Stevenson is on a zero-game hit streak, indicating a lack of recent scoring form. His overall hit rate of 25.4% suggests he's not a consistent scorer. While the model edge of 9.2% suggests the bookmakers may be undervaluing his chances, the player's recent performance doesn't inspire confidence. Thus, the statistical data leans towards a no bet for Stevenson to score anytime.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans : Under 40.5 Total Points (-102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The given data points towards a defensive matchup with both teams outperforming in limiting their opponents' scoring. The home team on average conceded only 16.4 points in their last 5 games, while the away team conceded a mere 18.6 points. This totals to 35 points which is well below the 40.5 point line. Additionally, both teams are performing well in terms of 'expected points added' (EPA) against, a measure of the defensive impact made by a team. The home team has an overall l5 EPA against of -3.34 while the away team even outshines them with -9.53. Furthermore, the away team's pass EPA against (-7.20) and rush EPA against (-2.66) suggest a well-rounded defense that can limit the home team's offensive efforts. Considering this strong defensive performance from both teams, betting under 40.5 seems to be a statistically sound choice.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans : Over 41.5 Total Points (-104)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Over 41.5' in the totals market for this NFL game is justified by the recent scoring records of both teams. Looking at the last five games, the home team has averaged 31 points, while the away team has averaged 30.2 points. Together, this equates to an average total score of 61.2 points, which is significantly higher than the line of 41.5 points. Moreover, both teams have demonstrated impressive offensive efficiency, as shown by their strong EPA (Expected Points Added) figures. The home team has an overall L5 EPA of 13.3, while the away team's is 4.6. These figures imply that both teams are likely to generate scoring opportunities. Given these statistics, it is reasonable to predict that the total points scored in this game will exceed the threshold of 41.5.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans : Over 40.5 Total Points (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 40.5 in the 'totals' market seems well-founded when considering the recent scoring trends for both teams. The home team has averaged 31 points per game over the last five games, while the away team has averaged 30.2 points. This combined average of 61.2 points is significantly higher than the over/under benchmark of 40.5. Furthermore, both teams have shown strong offensive performances. The home team's overall last five games' EPA (Expected Points Added) for is 13.31, while the away team's is 4.57. These figures suggest both teams' offensive plays are contributing to their scoring. The home team's record in the last five games is 4-1 and the away team is undefeated in their last five games, indicating both teams are in good form. The model edge of 0.042 might seem slight, but it offers a statistical advantage in favor of an 'Over' outcome.
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