Drake Maye (NE) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The primary betting rationale for betting under 21.5 on Drake Maye's rushing yards is linked to his recent poor performance and the statistical trends. Maye has been struggling to reach the 21.5 yards mark, with a hit rate of 0/5 in his last five overall and home games. This trend extends to his last 10 and 20 games as well, where he hit the mark only 0/10 and 2/20 times, respectively. His hit rate against Buffalo is slightly better at 1/2, but this is a small sample size and might not be a reliable indicator. Maye's current hit streak is also zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Though he has a hit streak of 1 against Buffalo, this doesn't outweigh his overall poor performance. Considering all these factors, the under 21.5 on Drake Maye's rushing yards seems a statistically sound bet.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+164)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data for Joe Burrow suggests a cautious approach towards the Over 9.5 bet in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market for the game between Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. Burrow has a weak recent performance, with an overall hit rate of 0 for the last 3, 5, and 10 games. His performance against Baltimore specifically is also disappointing, with a hit rate of 0 in the last 3 games and only 1 in the last 5 and 10 games. Burrow's home hit rate isn't encouraging either, standing at 0 in the last 3 games, although it improves to 3/5 in the last 5 games. His overall home hit rate is 11/22, suggesting he performs better at home but still not strong enough to convincingly back the Over 9.5 bet. Given these stats and the current hit streak of 0, the bet appears to be a high-risk one.
Drake Maye (NE) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical evidence suggests a strong rationale to bet on Drake Maye going under 20.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Maye's overall hit rate is quite low at 4/26, indicating that he has struggled to achieve more than 20.5 rushing yards in the majority of his appearances. Furthermore, his hit rate is even lower when playing at home (1/13), suggesting that home-field advantage doesn't significantly influence his performance. His recent form is also concerning with a current hit streak of zero both overall and at home. While he has had some success against Buffalo in the past, with a hit rate of 1/2 overall and maintaining a current hit streak of 1, the broader trend of his performance suggests it's more likely he will not exceed 20.5 rushing yards.
Chase Brown (CIN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Chase Brown for Under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is backed by a combination of the player's recent performance and hit rate trends. The data shows that Brown has not been performing well lately, with a current hit streak of zero both overall and at home. His overall hit rate for the last 10 games is 0/10 and for the last 20 games, it's just 2/20, which suggests a recurring pattern of underperformance. Despite the fact that he has a positive hit rate against the Ravens (2/3) and at home against the Ravens (2/2), his overall and home performance trends do not support a bet for him to outperform in this game. Considering this data and the model edge of 0.1587 favoring the under, it seems statistically sound to bet Under 20.5 on Chase Brown's reception yards.
Chase Brown (CIN) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Chase Brown to finish under 19.5 receiving yards is statistically reasonable based on his recent performance and hit rates. Brown's overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games, both overall and at home, is negative, showing he has struggled to surpass 19.5 yards recently. Furthermore, his current hit streaks are at zero, indicating he is not in a hot streak. However, it's important to note that Brown's hit rate against the Ravens is positive, with 2/3 overall and a perfect 2/2 at home. This suggests that Brown tends to perform better against the Ravens. Nevertheless, his overall declining performance and the model edge of 0.127125399630777 favoring the under outcome provide a larger scope of evidence suggesting that Brown is more likely to end under 19.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+133)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Joe Burrow for over 9.5 in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market is a risky play given his recent performance and trends. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 7/20 and he's not been on a hit streak recently. His performance against Baltimore Ravens is also not promising with a hit rate of 1/6 overall and 1/3 when playing at home. Furthermore, Burrow's recent performance shows a downward trend. He has not hit over 9.5 rushing yards in his last 5 games overall, and his hit rate at home in the last 5 games is 3/5. However, his home performance gives some hope, with a hit rate of 11/22 overall. If you're banking on the fact that playing at home might boost his performance, this could be a factor in your decision. But in light of the stats, this bet seems to carry a high
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