Drake Maye (NE) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The primary betting rationale for betting under 21.5 on Drake Maye's rushing yards is linked to his recent poor performance and the statistical trends. Maye has been struggling to reach the 21.5 yards mark, with a hit rate of 0/5 in his last five overall and home games. This trend extends to his last 10 and 20 games as well, where he hit the mark only 0/10 and 2/20 times, respectively. His hit rate against Buffalo is slightly better at 1/2, but this is a small sample size and might not be a reliable indicator. Maye's current hit streak is also zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Though he has a hit streak of 1 against Buffalo, this doesn't outweigh his overall poor performance. Considering all these factors, the under 21.5 on Drake Maye's rushing yards seems a statistically sound bet.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistics for Rhamondre Stevenson indicate a rather low performance in scoring touchdowns, which suggests a risk against betting on him to score. His overall hit rate is 15/54, indicating that he has scored a touchdown in less than 30% of his games. His performance at home (8/26) and against Buffalo Bills (1/4) also follows this trend. His recent performance is even more concerning, with no touchdowns scored in his last 5 games overall or at home. Although he has a current hit streak of 1 against Buffalo, his overall and home current hit streaks are 0. The model edge of 0.1797 suggests a slight advantage, but it doesn't seem strong enough to counterbalance his low scoring statistics. Therefore, while there is always a chance for an upset, the data-driven rationale would be to bet against Stevenson to score a touchdown in this game.
Hunter Henry (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided betting data, the rationale for betting on Hunter Henry to score a touchdown at any time in the game between New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills is quite weak. Henry's recent performance and overall trends do not show a strong likelihood of him scoring. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is merely 1/20 and he has not scored in any of his last 10 games, both overall and at home. He has a 0 hit streak both overall and at home, indicating he has not scored in recent games. Although he has a hit rate of 1/4 against Buffalo, the fact that he did not score in the last two home games against Buffalo lowers the probability of him scoring. The model's edge is only 0.1744, which is not substantial enough to suggest a higher likelihood of Henry scoring a touchdown.
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