C.J. Stroud (HOU) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Analyzing the data, the bet on C.J. Stroud achieving over 14.5 in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market seems quite risky. Stroud's recent performance, specifically his 'hit rates', does not support this outcome. Stroud has not hit the over 14.5 rushing yards in his last five games overall, nor in his last five home games. His performance against the Cardinals is also not promising as he did not surpass this mark in their last encounter. His overall hit rate is just under 24% (11 out of 46 games), indicating that he only occasionally crosses this threshold. Furthermore, his current hit streaks are all at zero, further lessening the likelihood of this bet's success. Thus, the data suggests that betting on Stroud to exceed 14.5 rushing yards is not a statistically sound decision.
Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, betting on Nico Collins to score a touchdown in the player anytime touchdown market does not have strong support. Collins' recent performance and overall hit rates suggest a low probability of him scoring a touchdown. In his last 5 games overall and at home, he hasn't scored a touchdown (0/5). Furthermore, Collins has never scored against the Arizona Cardinals, either at home or away (0/1). His overall hit rate is 15 out of 53, and at home, it's slightly better at 12 out of 26. However, his current hit streak in all categories is zero. The model edge is also quite small at 0.0261, indicating a slim projected advantage for this bet. Therefore, based on the provided data, betting on Collins to score a touchdown in this game would be a high-risk bet.
C.J. Stroud (HOU) Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on C.J. Stroud for over 10.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market for the Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals game presents a high risk, based on the provided statistics. Stroud's recent performance does not inspire confidence, with an overall hit rate of 16/46. This trend worsens when looking at his home hit rate, which stands at 6/22, and his hit rate against the Cardinals, which is 0/1. Furthermore, Stroud has failed to hit over 10.5 yards in his last 10 attempts overall, his last 10 home games, and his only game against the Cardinals. His current hit streak in all categories is 0, signaling a clear downward trend. Therefore, statistical reasoning suggests that betting on Stroud to achieve more than 10.5 rushing yards in this match might not be the most promising wager.
C.J. Stroud (HOU) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, the bet on C.J. Stroud to rush for over 9.5 yards seems to have a low probability of success. Stroud's recent performance and trends are not favorable. His overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is extremely low, with none of the last three, five, or ten games going over 9.5 yards. Even at home, his performance remains the same, with a hit rate of 1/10 in the last 10 games. Against the Cardinals, Stroud's hit rate is 0/1, both overall and at home. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a consistent failure to meet the threshold of 9.5 yards. Despite the model providing a slight edge (1.54%), Stroud's past performance doesn't inspire confidence in this bet.
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