Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Sunday 11/23 (Caleb Williams Focus)

Based on the data provided, betting on the under for Caleb Williams' rushing yards seems statistically sound. The player has a significantly poor hit rate, failing to surpass 22.5 rushing yards in his last three, five, ten, and twenty games. Specifically, his overall hit rates for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games are 0/3, 0/5, 0/10, and 4/20 respectively. This trend is similarly reflected in his home game performance, with only 1 out of the last 10 home games hitting over the set point. His overall hit rate is 7 out of 27 games, indicating that he surpasses the 22.5 rushing yards mark only about 26% of the time. Furthermore, he is currently on a streak of not hitting the mark. Hence, betting for an under 22.5 on Caleb Williams' rushing yards is a statistically grounded choice.

Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The bet on Keaton Mitchell to rush for under 21.5 yards during the Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets game is justified by Mitchell's recent performance and trends. Mitchell has failed to surpass this mark in his last three games, as indicated by his overall hit rate of 0/3. Furthermore, his performance at home has been similarly poor, with a hit rate of just 1/3 over the same period. Looking at a broader time frame, Mitchell's overall hit rate over the last 20 games is a dismal 3/14, with a home hit rate of 2/8. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. In light of these statistics, the model's edge of 18.8% for the under bet seems to be a reasonable estimate, suggesting that Mitchell is unlikely to exceed 21.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game.

Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The statistical data from Isaiah Likely's recent performance strongly supports the under 21.5 bet for the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets game. Likely's overall hit rate is quite low at 20 out of 52. Moreover, he hasn't excelled in recent games, with a hit rate of 0 out of 5 in the last five games. This trend holds true both overall and at home, suggesting his performance isn't influenced by the location of the match. His performance against the Jets is the only outlier with a 100% hit rate, but this is based on a single game. Additionally, he's currently on a zero hit streak both overall and at home. Given this data, the under 21.5 bet has a strong statistical edge, making it a more likely outcome.

Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Isaiah Likely's performance in recent games suggests that betting on him to reach under 20.5 reception yards may be a wise choice. His overall hit rate over the last 5, 10, and 20 games is low, with 0/5, 1/10, and 5/20 respectively. His hit rate at home is also notably low, with 0/5 in the last 5 games and 1/10 in the last 10. Though he has had success against the New York Jets in the past with a 1/1 hit rate, it's worth noting that this is based on a single game, which is not a large enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions from. Additionally, Likely is on a zero hit streak overall and at home, further supporting the "Under" bet. The model edge of 0.174 also indicates a moderately strong edge towards the "Under" outcome.

Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-141)

Betting on Derrick Henry for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market is a well-founded choice, based on his recent performance trends. Although Henry's overall hit rate over his last 62 games is just above 50% (36/62), his performance markedly improves when playing at home. Over his last 20 home games, he hit the Under 1.5 mark 70% of the time (14/20). This performance is even more impressive in his last 10 home games, with a 70% hit rate (7/10), and a perfect 100% (5/5) in his last 5. His current home hit streak is at 6 games, further supporting the expectancy of a strong home performance. Despite a recent overall setback (current overall hit streak at 0), Henry's proven home-field advantage suggests a higher likelihood of him hitting Under 1.5 in player receptions for the upcoming game against the Jets.