Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-141)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Derrick Henry for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market is a well-founded choice, based on his recent performance trends. Although Henry's overall hit rate over his last 62 games is just above 50% (36/62), his performance markedly improves when playing at home. Over his last 20 home games, he hit the Under 1.5 mark 70% of the time (14/20). This performance is even more impressive in his last 10 home games, with a 70% hit rate (7/10), and a perfect 100% (5/5) in his last 5. His current home hit streak is at 6 games, further supporting the expectancy of a strong home performance. Despite a recent overall setback (current overall hit streak at 0), Henry's proven home-field advantage suggests a higher likelihood of him hitting Under 1.5 in player receptions for the upcoming game against the Jets.
Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Caleb Williams to finish under 22.5 rushing yards in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers is a statistically sound choice. Williams has shown a consistent pattern of underperformance in rushing yards. His overall hit rate for the last three, five, and ten games is 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10 respectively. This trend extends to his home games as well, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10. Over the last 20 games, Williams only exceeded the outcome point 4 times overall and 3 times at home. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero. Given these consistent underperformances, it seems statistically likely that Williams will not exceed 22.5 rush yards in the upcoming game.
Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Keaton Mitchell to rush for under 21.5 yards during the Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets game is justified by Mitchell's recent performance and trends. Mitchell has failed to surpass this mark in his last three games, as indicated by his overall hit rate of 0/3. Furthermore, his performance at home has been similarly poor, with a hit rate of just 1/3 over the same period. Looking at a broader time frame, Mitchell's overall hit rate over the last 20 games is a dismal 3/14, with a home hit rate of 2/8. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. In light of these statistics, the model's edge of 18.8% for the under bet seems to be a reasonable estimate, suggesting that Mitchell is unlikely to exceed 21.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game.
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