Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Caleb Williams to finish under 22.5 rushing yards in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers is a statistically sound choice. Williams has shown a consistent pattern of underperformance in rushing yards. His overall hit rate for the last three, five, and ten games is 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10 respectively. This trend extends to his home games as well, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10. Over the last 20 games, Williams only exceeded the outcome point 4 times overall and 3 times at home. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero. Given these consistent underperformances, it seems statistically likely that Williams will not exceed 22.5 rush yards in the upcoming game.
DJ Moore (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
DJ Moore has shown consistent performance in recent games, which is an important factor to consider for this 'player_anytime_td' bet. Analyzing his last five games, Moore has had a strong presence in the end zone, which supports the model edge of 0.189774374337955. This indicates a positive edge for bettors, suggesting that there is a higher probability of Moore scoring a touchdown at any time during the game than the odds imply. Moore is also known for his ability to break away from defenders and find open space, increasing his chances of scoring. Furthermore, the Steelers' defense has been somewhat vulnerable recently, providing additional opportunities for Moore. Overall, based on DJ Moore's recent performance and the statistical model edge, betting 'Yes' on Moore for an anytime touchdown seems a sound decision.
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+124)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the head-to-head (h2h) market is justified by several statistical advantages over their opponents. Firstly, their model edge of 0.1375 suggests that the betting market undervalues them. The Steelers have consistently outscored their opponents both overall and at home in the last five games. Their home overall score and point differential is higher than their opponents, and their home record (4-1) outperforms their opponents' away record (2-3). Moreover, their Expected Points Added (EPA) for both overall and home games is superior, demonstrating better efficiency in turning plays into points. They also have a positive turnover differential, which indicates fewer mistakes and better ball control. Lastly, the Steelers' explosive rate for reflects their capacity to make game-changing plays. When all these factors are considered, it's statistically reasonable to bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the h2h market.
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