Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets Prediction & Picks : Expert Betting Guide

The statistical data for Derrick Henry's player reception yards doesn't support a strong case for betting over 9.5 yards. Henry's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is only 20% (4/20) and at home, it increases slightly to 45% (9/20). In the last 10 games, he hasn't hit this mark at all (0/10), while at home he's managed to achieve this 30% of the time (3/10). Furthermore, his recent performance is poor, with a current hit streak of zero both overall and at home. Considering his overall hit rate is less than 50% (29/62 overall and 17/30 at home), the likelihood of Henry surpassing 9.5 reception yards is relatively low. Although the model edge suggests a slight advantage, the prominent data points to a trend of underperformance in this particular market.

Zay Flowers (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

The statistical profile of Zay Flowers suggests that betting on him scoring a touchdown in the 'player_anytime_td' market could be a risky proposition. His recent performance does not inspire confidence; in his last 5 games overall, as well as his last 5 home games, Flowers did not score a touchdown. His overall hit rate is also low, with just 8 touchdowns in 45 games, and only 4 in 23 home games. His current hit streak, both overall and at home, stands at 0, showing a lack of recent scoring form. Even his longer-term record is weak, with just 2 touchdowns in his last 20 games and 4 in his last 20 home games. The model edge is relatively small at just over 7.67%. Therefore, the statistical evidence suggests a bet on Flowers to score may not be the most prudent choice.

Derrick Henry (BAL) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+194)

Based on the data presented, betting on Derrick Henry for Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market seems to be a risky proposition. Henry's recent performance does not indicate a high chance of success, as he has failed to surpass 14.5 reception yards in his last five games. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is only 20% (4/20) and he hasn't had a successful bet in his last three home games. Furthermore, his overall hit streak and home hit streak are both at zero, signaling a lack of momentum. While the model edge is positive at about 7.13%, it's important to consider the player's recent form and historical performance. Given these stats, a bet in favor of Derrick Henry exceeding 14.5 reception yards appears to be against the odds.

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : NA +13.5 Point Spread (-106)

The reasoning behind betting on the New York Jets with a 13.5 spread is backed by several key statistics. Firstly, the Jets have been performing better than their opponents in recent games. Their overall score over the last five games is 19.4, versus their opponents' 22.2, and they have a superior turnover differential of -0.6 compared to their opponents' -1.8. This suggests that the Jets have been more successful in capitalizing on their opponents' mistakes. Secondly, the Jets have a smaller expected points added (EPA) differential than their opponents, -3.16 compared to -9.09. This indicates that they've been more effective in terms of cumulative offensive and defensive contributions. Finally, the Jets have a lower explosive rate against (0.212) than their opponents (0.220), meaning they have been more successful in preventing big plays. Given these statistical trends, a bet on the Jets with a 13.5 spread

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : NA +13.5 Point Spread (-108)

The bet on the New York Jets with a spread of 13.5 seems to be a good choice considering the recent performances of both teams. The Jets have a lower average score against in their last five games (22.2) compared to their opponents (26.4), suggesting they have a stronger defense. Furthermore, the Jets have a smaller negative turnover differential (-0.6) compared to their opponents (-1.8), indicating they take better care of the ball and are more likely to have more possessions. This could lead to more scoring opportunities. The Jets also have a higher overall L5 explosive rate for (0.2115) compared to their opponents (0.1989), suggesting they have more big-play potential. Despite a 2-3 away record in their last 5 games, the Jets' recent performances and statistics suggest they have a good chance of covering a 13.5 point spread.