Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Keaton Mitchell to rush for under 21.5 yards during the Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets game is justified by Mitchell's recent performance and trends. Mitchell has failed to surpass this mark in his last three games, as indicated by his overall hit rate of 0/3. Furthermore, his performance at home has been similarly poor, with a hit rate of just 1/3 over the same period. Looking at a broader time frame, Mitchell's overall hit rate over the last 20 games is a dismal 3/14, with a home hit rate of 2/8. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. In light of these statistics, the model's edge of 18.8% for the under bet seems to be a reasonable estimate, suggesting that Mitchell is unlikely to exceed 21.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game.
Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Isaiah Likely's performance in recent games suggests that betting on him to reach under 20.5 reception yards may be a wise choice. His overall hit rate over the last 5, 10, and 20 games is low, with 0/5, 1/10, and 5/20 respectively. His hit rate at home is also notably low, with 0/5 in the last 5 games and 1/10 in the last 10. Though he has had success against the New York Jets in the past with a 1/1 hit rate, it's worth noting that this is based on a single game, which is not a large enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions from. Additionally, Likely is on a zero hit streak overall and at home, further supporting the "Under" bet. The model edge of 0.174 also indicates a moderately strong edge towards the "Under" outcome.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data does not strongly support a bet on Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at any point in the game between the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. Jackson has not managed to score a touchdown in his last 5 games overall or at home, as well as in his last 3 matchups against the Jets. The overall hit rate for Jackson to score a touchdown is less than 20% (10/56), and it's even lower when playing at home (5/27). He hasn’t been successful in his last attempt against the Jets either. Moreover, all his current hit streaks are at zero, providing no evidence of recent upward momentum. The model edge of 0.174, while positive, indicates a relatively small expected advantage for this bet. Based on these statistics, a bet on Jackson to score a touchdown in this game seems risky.
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