Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Saturday 01/17 (Zach Charbonnet Focus)

The statistical data leans heavily towards betting under 22.5 for Jaleel McLaughlin's rushing yards. Firstly, McLaughlin's recent performance shows a consistent lack of hitting his rushing yard benchmarks. His overall hit rate in the last 10 and 20 games is 0/10 and 5/20 respectively, while at home, his hit rate is only slightly improved at 3/10 and 8/20. This suggests that he struggles to exceed this yardage regardless of the location of the match. Moreover, his current hit streak for overall and home games is at zero, which further highlights his recent underperformance. Although his hit rate against the Buffalo Bills is 1/1, this is based on a single encounter and may not be a reliable predictor on its own. The model edge of 0.193742111063203 also supports a bet on the under, indicating that the model sees value in this bet. Thus, based on his lacklust

Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-244)

While Zach Charbonnet's recent overall performance (0/10 in the last 10 games and 0/5 in the last 5) raises concerns, his specific performance against the San Francisco 49ers at home is promising. Charbonnet has hit the over in his last two home games against the 49ers and has a 100% hit rate against them at home overall (2/2). This trend suggests he may have a tactical advantage or a favourable matchup against the 49ers that allows him to exceed expectations. Additionally, his overall home hit rate (12/23) is more than twice his away rate, implying he performs better on home ground. Though his recent performance is lacklustre, his specific record against the 49ers at home provides a data-driven rationale for betting on Charbonnet to go over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-345)

Betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to have over 1.5 receptions in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market appears to be a solid choice based on his recent performance and trend data. Stevenson has been consistently meeting or exceeding this benchmark, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 45/59 and home hit rate of 24/29. His current hit streaks are also impressive, with six overall and four at home, suggesting a sustained level of performance. Furthermore, his hit rate has improved in recent games, with a 5/5 record in the last five games overall and a 4/5 record at home. The model edge of 0.186414242778717 also points to a statistical advantage for this bet. Given these data points, there is strong statistical reasoning to bet on Stevenson achieving more than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game against the Houston Texans.

Hunter Henry (NE) Under 3.5 Receptions (-108)

The bet on Hunter Henry for Under 3.5 in the 'player receptions' market is statistically supported by his recent performance and hit rate trends. Henry's overall hit rate for the last 10 games is 40% (4/10), which drops to 30% (3/10) for home games. His recent performance averaged over the last 5 games is 60% overall but has a lower success rate of 40% at home. When specifically looking at his performance against the Houston Texans, Henry has a 100% hit rate. However, this is based on a smaller sample size of just one game, which may not be a reliable indicator of future performance against this team. Importantly, his overall hit rate is just over 55% (35/63), which indicates that he is more likely to fall under the 3.5 receptions mark. Considering these factors, the Under 3.5 bet for Hunter Henry is statistically reasoned.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (+120)

Statistically, a bet on Rhamondre Stevenson for Over 24.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is not strongly supported by the data. Stevenson's recent performance and trends do not favor this bet. He has failed to hit this target in his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games overall, and the same disappointing trend is evident in his home games. His overall hit rate is 10/59, or about 17%, and it's only slightly better at home, with a 6/29, or 21% hit rate. Additionally, he's currently on a zero-hit streak both overall and at home. While the model gives a slight edge of 0.180372815075185, this is not substantial enough to counter the clear negative trend in Stevenson's receiving yards. Therefore, a bet for Stevenson to exceed 24.5 receiving yards comes with high risk.