Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data leans heavily towards betting under 22.5 for Jaleel McLaughlin's rushing yards. Firstly, McLaughlin's recent performance shows a consistent lack of hitting his rushing yard benchmarks. His overall hit rate in the last 10 and 20 games is 0/10 and 5/20 respectively, while at home, his hit rate is only slightly improved at 3/10 and 8/20. This suggests that he struggles to exceed this yardage regardless of the location of the match. Moreover, his current hit streak for overall and home games is at zero, which further highlights his recent underperformance. Although his hit rate against the Buffalo Bills is 1/1, this is based on a single encounter and may not be a reliable predictor on its own. The model edge of 0.193742111063203 also supports a bet on the under, indicating that the model sees value in this bet. Thus, based on his lacklust
Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+1560)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Marvin Mims Jr.'s recent performance favors an Over 24.5 bet in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market. In his last five games, Mims has consistently shown his rushing capabilities, often exceeding the 24.5 yards mark. His hit rate, or the frequency with which he has met or surpassed this threshold, supports this trend. Moreover, the model's edge of 0.171371542646316 indicates a positive expected value for this bet. This means that, based on historical data and predictive modeling, this bet is likely to be profitable in the long run. It's important to note that the model edge doesn't guarantee a winning bet, but it does suggest a higher probability of success. Overall, considering Mims Jr.'s recent performance, his trend of hitting the over, and the positive model edge, it would be a statistically sound decision to bet Over 24.5 for Marvin Mims Jr.'s rushing yards.
Troy Franklin (DEN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly supports a bet on Troy Franklin to fall under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills game. Franklin has been underperforming recently with an overall hit rate of 0 in his last 3, 5, and 10 games. He is currently on a hit streak of 0, which demonstrates a consistent lack of productivity. Despite his slightly better performance at home, with a 6/17 hit rate, this is still well below the threshold for this bet. Moreover, his overall hit rate is 11/34, which suggests that he is unlikely to exceed 20.5 reception yards. The model's edge of 0.167 indicates a significant advantage for the under bet. Therefore, using this data, the under 20.5 bet is the most statistically sound.
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