Adam Trautman (DEN) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+200)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically speaking, betting on Adam Trautman to achieve over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market for the Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills game is a risky proposition. Trautman's recent performance and hit rates show a pattern of underperformance. For instance, he has an overall hit rate of 0 for his last 3, 5, and 10 games. His home hit rate is similarly poor, at 0 for the last 3 and 5 games, and only 3 for the last 10. Although his overall hit rate is slightly better at 18 out of 53, it still suggests a less than 50% chance of success. However, it should be noted that Trautman has a 100% hit rate against Buffalo, albeit based on a single game. This positive outlier, combined with the model edge of 0.0887, could provide a glimmer of hope for a positive outcome
Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Lil'Jordan Humphrey to surpass 5.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills might seem risky considering his recent performance. He has failed to hit this mark in his last five overall games, as well as his last three home games. This poor form is reflected in his hit rates; an overall hit rate of 0/5 and a home hit rate of 0/3. However, it's worth noting that when playing against the Buffalo Bills, Humphrey has a perfect record, hitting the over in his single past encounter. Furthermore, his overall home hit rate of 9/16 shows that he has often performed better at home. Given that the game is at Denver, his home field, and his perfect record against Buffalo, the bet has potential despite Humphrey's recent struggles.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Lil'Jordan Humphrey to go over 5.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills game presents a risky proposition due to his recent performance. Humphrey's overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games has been 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10, respectively, indicating a lack of consistent performance in achieving more than 5.5 reception yards. His current overall and home hit streaks stand at zero, further reflecting his recent struggles. However, his stats against Buffalo show promise and provide a glimmer of hope for this bet - he has a 100% hit rate in the last 1, 5, 10, and 20 games against Buffalo. These statistics suggest that Humphrey often performs better against Buffalo, but it's critical to consider his overall recent performance, which has been lacking. Therefore, this bet carries a substantial risk.
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Buffalo Bills appear to be a solid bet on the spread in this game, given their strong performance in recent games. Looking at the last 5 games, the Bills have scored an average of 26.4 points per game (ppg) against their opponents' 19.2 ppg, yielding a positive point differential of 7.2. This outperforms the home team's point differential of 4.8. The Bills also show promising efficiency, with a higher overall Expected Points Added (EPA) differential of 9.09 compared to the home team's 5.42. Furthermore, the Bills have demonstrated solid offensive capabilities with their total yards per game (350.2) slightly surpassing that of the home team (347). Turnovers—often a game-changing factor—also favor the Bills. They've averaged fewer turnovers (0.4) than the home team (0.8). Both teams have comparable recent records (4-1),
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Buffalo Bills at 1.5 in the spreads market is statistically justified based on the recent performance and records. Firstly, the Bills have a higher overall point difference (7.2) compared to the home team (4.8) in the last five games, indicating stronger performance. They also have a higher expected points added (EPA) difference of 9.09 compared to 5.42 for the home team, indicating a better offensive and defensive performance. In terms of overall turnovers, Buffalo has a positive turnover differential of 0.6, indicating a strong defensive ability to force turnovers while maintaining possession. The Bills' overall explosive rate of 0.23 also exceeds the home team's 0.20, which suggests a higher potential for big plays. Lastly, the Bills have a 4-1 record in their last five games, both overall and away, demonstrating a strong recent track record. These statistical advantages favor a bet on the Bills.
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills : Over 46.5 Total Points (-102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 46.5 points in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by the performance data of both teams in their last five games. The home team has scored an average of 23.4 points per game and conceded an average of 18.6 points. The away team has scored an average of 26.4 points and conceded an average of 19.2 points. Taken together, the teams have combined for an average of 49.8 points per game, which is above the set total of 46.5. Furthermore, both teams have a positive point difference, indicating they tend to outscore their opponents. Additionally, their EPA (Expected Points Added) data shows that both teams are effective in creating scoring opportunities, further supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Finally, both teams have strong records, indicating they are in good form and likely to contribute to a high scoring game.
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