Best NFL Parlay Picks Today, Saturday 01/17 (7-Leg)

Betting on Drake Maye to exceed 149.5 passing yards in the game between the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans appears to be a risky proposition. The data shows that Maye's overall hit rate for this bet is low, with only 9 successful outcomes in 31 attempts (29% success rate). His performance at home has been particularly poor with only 3 successful outcomes in 16 attempts (19% success rate). However, it's worth noting that Maye's hit rate against the Texans is perfect, albeit based on a single datapoint. He's also managed to exceed this passing yard target in his last encounter with the Texans at home. While the model suggests a slight edge, it's important to recognize this relies heavily on Maye's lone successful effort against the Texans, and his overall and home performance suggests this bet carries significant risk.

Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Over 0.5 Player receptions alternate (-667)

Zach Charbonnet has a strong record in the 'player receptions alternate' market, which makes the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice. His overall hit rate is impressive at 39 out of 49 and his recent form is solid as well, with a current hit streak of 3. When playing at home, his hit rate is 16 out of 23, showing that he performs well on his home field. Additionally, Charbonnet's performance against the San Francisco 49ers is noteworthy. He has a 100% hit rate against them overall (4 out of 4), at home (2 out of 2), and in the last 3 games (3 out of 3). Furthermore, his current hit streak against the 49ers is 4. This data suggests that Charbonnet consistently performs well against this particular team. Overall, based on Charbonnet's past performance and current form, the Over 0.5 bet for

Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1429)

Based on the provided data, betting on Kayshon Boutte to have over 4.5 reception yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is a risky proposition. Boutte's overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games has been poor, failing to achieve the outcome even once. His performance at home and overall similarly lacks promise, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10 respectively. However, there are some positive signs when Boutte plays against the Houston Texans. He has a perfect hit rate in his last 1, 5, and 10 games against Houston, both overall and at home. This suggests that Boutte may perform better against this specific opponent. The model's edge is also very low (0.039), indicating low confidence in the prediction. Therefore, while there's a chance Boutte could exceed 4.5 reception yards based on past

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-345)

Betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to have over 1.5 receptions in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market appears to be a solid choice based on his recent performance and trend data. Stevenson has been consistently meeting or exceeding this benchmark, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 45/59 and home hit rate of 24/29. His current hit streaks are also impressive, with six overall and four at home, suggesting a sustained level of performance. Furthermore, his hit rate has improved in recent games, with a 5/5 record in the last five games overall and a 4/5 record at home. The model edge of 0.186414242778717 also points to a statistical advantage for this bet. Given these data points, there is strong statistical reasoning to bet on Stevenson achieving more than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game against the Houston Texans.

Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-244)

While Zach Charbonnet's recent overall performance (0/10 in the last 10 games and 0/5 in the last 5) raises concerns, his specific performance against the San Francisco 49ers at home is promising. Charbonnet has hit the over in his last two home games against the 49ers and has a 100% hit rate against them at home overall (2/2). This trend suggests he may have a tactical advantage or a favourable matchup against the 49ers that allows him to exceed expectations. Additionally, his overall home hit rate (12/23) is more than twice his away rate, implying he performs better on home ground. Though his recent performance is lacklustre, his specific record against the 49ers at home provides a data-driven rationale for betting on Charbonnet to go over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (-357)

The betting rationale for Rhamondre Stevenson for Over 9.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market for the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game is not very promising based on the recent performance data. Stevenson's overall and home hit rates in the last 3, 5, and 10 games are all extremely low, with no hits in his last 10 overall games and only a single hit in his last 10 home games. His overall hit rate across all games is 44% (26/59) and for home games, it's slightly better at 48% (14/29). However, his recent form is concerning, with a current hit streak of 0 both overall and at home. This data suggests that Stevenson's recent performance has not been strong enough to confidently predict he will exceed 9.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.