Hunter Henry (NE) Under 3.5 Receptions (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Hunter Henry for Under 3.5 in the 'player receptions' market is statistically supported by his recent performance and hit rate trends. Henry's overall hit rate for the last 10 games is 40% (4/10), which drops to 30% (3/10) for home games. His recent performance averaged over the last 5 games is 60% overall but has a lower success rate of 40% at home. When specifically looking at his performance against the Houston Texans, Henry has a 100% hit rate. However, this is based on a smaller sample size of just one game, which may not be a reliable indicator of future performance against this team. Importantly, his overall hit rate is just over 55% (35/63), which indicates that he is more likely to fall under the 3.5 receptions mark. Considering these factors, the Under 3.5 bet for Hunter Henry is statistically reasoned.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-357)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the 'Over' for Rhamondre Stevenson's receptions against the Houston Texans seems a strong choice, given the player's recent performance and hit rate trends. Stevenson boasts consistent hit rates, with a 100% (3/3) overall hit rate in his last 3 games, and a strong 70% (7/10) overall hit rate in his last 10 games. Notably, his overall hit rate stands at a commendable 76.27% (45/59), indicating a strong pattern of high performance. In the home context, Stevenson's hit rate trends are even more impressive, with a 100% (3/3) hit rate in his last 3 home games and 70% (7/10) in his last 10 home games. His overall home hit rate stands at an impressive 82.76% (24/29), indicating that he performs particularly well at home. With a current 6-game hit
Austin Hooper (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+650)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical analysis does not favor a bet on Austin Hooper to score a touchdown in the 'player_anytime_td' market for the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game. Hooper's hit rates are overwhelmingly negative. He has not scored a touchdown in his last 10 overall games, his last 5 home games, nor in his last 3 games against Houston, whether at home or away. His overall touchdown scoring rate is a meager 4 in 64 games, and just 1 in 31 home games. He has never scored a touchdown against Houston in 3 attempts. The numbers suggest a strong pattern of underperformance specifically in scoring touchdowns. Despite the model edge of 0.173876324680958, the detailed statistics do not justify a bet on Hooper to score a touchdown in this game.
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