Drake Maye (NE) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting under 21.5 on Drake Maye's rushing yards for the New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills game is statistically plausible. Maye's recent performance and trends indicate he has struggled to meet this threshold. Looking at his overall hit rate, he has only exceeded 21.5 rushing yards in 4 out of his 26 total games, a hit rate of 15.38%. More specifically, his performance at home is even more telling, with only 1 successful hit out of 13 home games, a hit rate of 7.69%. Furthermore, Maye hasn't been successful in his last 10 attempts overall and his last 5 at home. Although he has a hit rate of 50% against Buffalo, these are just two games, and the sample size is too small to be reliable. His current hit streaks are also at zero, except against Buffalo, but again, this is based on a limited sample size.
Chase Brown (CIN) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The reasoning for betting on Chase Brown for Under 21.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens game is based on his recent performance and hit rates. Brown has been underperforming, with an overall hit rate of 17/39 and a current hit streak of 0. His home hit rate is also low at 8/19, suggesting he struggles to rack up reception yards at home. Over his last 10 games, he's only hit the mark once, further indicating a downward trend. His performance against the Ravens is slightly better, with a hit rate of 2/3 and an unbeaten streak of 2 when playing at home. However, considering his overall and recent performance, it's statistically more likely for Brown to fall under 21.5 reception yards. This is also supported by the model edge of 0.180744793911306.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+164)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Joe Burrow to rush for over 9.5 yards in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens game is a risky proposition. The statistical data indicates that Burrow's recent performance doesn't favor this bet. His overall hit rate in the last 5 games is 0/5, and when specifically facing the Ravens, it is only 1/5. Even his home performance, which is comparatively better, stands at a hit rate of 3/5. The hit rates over a longer period of 10 or 20 games also do not provide a strong basis for this bet. Burrow's overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 7/20 and only 10/20 at home. Against the Ravens, these rates drop to 1/6 and 1/3 respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak in all categories is 0, which implies that he hasn't been hitting this mark recently. While the model suggests a slight edge (
Chase Brown (CIN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Chase Brown for Under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is supported by several statistical trends. Brown's overall performance shows a lack of consistency, with his overall hit rate being 17/39. The recent form is also quite poor, with no successful hit in the last 10 games overall and at home. His performance against Baltimore is better, hitting 2/3 overall and 2/2 at home, but this sample size is small. Critically, the model gives an edge of 0.1608 for this bet, indicating a higher probability of this outcome. Hence, the combination of Brown's overall poor form, his recent lack of success, and the model edge suggest that betting under 20.5 is a prudent choice in this game.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Joe Burrow to rush for over 9.5 yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market for the Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens game appears to be a risky proposition based on the provided data. Burrow's overall hit rate, which refers to how often he's achieved more than 9.5 rushing yards, is relatively low at 18/50 (36%). His performance against the Ravens is even worse, with just 1/6 (16.67%) overall and 1/3 (33.33%) when playing at home. His recent performance also doesn't inspire confidence, with a 0/5 hit rate in his last five games overall. While he has a slightly higher hit rate at home (6/10 in his last 10 games and 10/20 in his last 20), the statistical trends suggest that Burrow is more likely to rush for less than 9.5 yards, especially against the Ravens. Therefore
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Joe Burrow to exceed 5.5 rushing yards in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens game could be a risky proposition given the current statistics. Despite having a decent overall hit rate (27/50), Burrow's recent performance casts doubt on this outcome. He has failed to exceed this mark in his last five attempts overall (0/5) and his last three attempts at home (0/3). While Burrow has a positive hit rate against Baltimore overall (4/6) and at home (1/3), his current home streak against Baltimore isn't encouraging (0). However, his overall home hit rate (14/22) and his recent success rate against Baltimore (1) suggest he could surpass this total. It's a mixed bag of results, but with a model edge of 0.116631751558178, there's a slight probabilistic edge in favor of this outcome.
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