Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Monday 12/08 (Tyler Allgeier Focus)

To rationalize the Under 15.5 bet for Dylan Drummond's player_reception_yds in the Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks game, we need to look at his recent performance and trend data. If Drummond's last five (L5) game averages for reception yards fall below the 15.5 mark, this indicates a consistent underperformance against the bet's outcome point. Additionally, we should consider hit rates and streaks; if Drummond regularly falls short of this outcome point, the likelihood of him exceeding it in the upcoming game is lower. The model edge of 0.195085690848891 also favors the Under bet, meaning the statistical model predicts a nearly 20% higher probability of Drummond staying under 15.5 reception yards than the odds imply. Therefore, based on Drummond's recent performance, statistical trends, and model edge, the bet for Under 15.5 reception yards is a viable option.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+162)

Based on the available statistics, betting over 9.5 on Tyler Allgeier's reception yards appears risky. Allgeier has been struggling to meet this mark recently, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 15/62, and a complete miss in his last 10 attempts. Specifically, his performance against the Seahawks and at home has been poor, with hit rates of 0/2 and 9/30 respectively. His recent performance, with hit rates of 0/3 and 0/5 in his last three and five games respectively, indicates a downward trend. Furthermore, his lack of success at home versus the Seahawks (0/1) suggests a difficulty in overcoming this specific match-up. Despite the model edge of 0.171665345650733, Allgeier's overall, home, versus Seattle, and current hit streak statistics suggest a low probability of him exceeding 9.5 reception yards in this game.

Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Betting on Keon Coleman to finish under 21.5 receiving yards is supported by a strong set of statistical data. Coleman has had a poor run of form recently, failing to hit the over in his last 10 games overall and his last 5 home games. His hit rate for going over 21.5 receiving yards is just 3 out of 26 overall and 2 out of 13 at home, indicating a strong tendency to finish under the set point. Additionally, his model edge of 0.1549 suggests a substantial advantage for this bet. His current hit streaks both overall and at home stand at 0, further signifying his recent struggles in surpassing this yardage amount. Given Coleman's recent performance and trends, the under 21.5 receiving yards bet appears statistically compelling.

Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-141)

The betting rationale for Under 1.5 player receptions for Derrick Henry in the Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game is based on his performance trends. Henry has not performed well against Pittsburgh, with a hit rate of only 1/3 overall and 0/1 at home. His overall hit rate in the last 3 games is also low at 1/3. Furthermore, his hit streak against Pittsburgh is currently at 0, indicating a lack of recent success. The model also provides an edge of approximately 0.15 for the under outcome, lending further support. Despite a stronger home hit rate, considering the specific opponent and the player's recent overall performance, the statistics suggest a higher probability that Henry will have fewer than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game.

Keon Coleman (BUF) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Betting on Keon Coleman for Under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is statistically supported by his recent performance and hit rates. Coleman's overall hit rate, both in recent and overall games, has been significantly low. In the last 20 games, he has only hit over 20.5 reception yards once. This trend is even more pronounced at home games, with just one hit over 20.5 yards in 13 games. Over the last 5 and 10 games, the hit rate is 0, indicating a consistent failure to reach the 20.5 yards mark. His current hit streak is also zero, suggesting no recent upturn in performance. These figures indicate a strong likelihood that Coleman will not exceed 20.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills. The model edge of 0.128768563590209 further reinforces this prediction.