Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly suggests that betting on Tyler Allgeier to have Under 22.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks is a safe bet. Allgeier's recent performances reveal a consistent inability to hit the 22.5 yards mark. In his last five games overall, as well as his last five home games, he has failed to surpass this figure. Furthermore, when specifically facing the Seahawks, Allgeier's rushing yards have also consistently been under 22.5 in their last two encounters. This trend is even more pronounced when he plays against the Seahawks at home, where he has failed to reach this mark in their last meeting. Considering these trends, along with a model edge of 0.196617161376583, betting on Allgeier to have under 22.5 rushing yards seems to be a statistically sound decision.
Dylan Drummond (ATL) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
To rationalize the Under 15.5 bet for Dylan Drummond's player_reception_yds in the Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks game, we need to look at his recent performance and trend data. If Drummond's last five (L5) game averages for reception yards fall below the 15.5 mark, this indicates a consistent underperformance against the bet's outcome point. Additionally, we should consider hit rates and streaks; if Drummond regularly falls short of this outcome point, the likelihood of him exceeding it in the upcoming game is lower. The model edge of 0.195085690848891 also favors the Under bet, meaning the statistical model predicts a nearly 20% higher probability of Drummond staying under 15.5 reception yards than the odds imply. Therefore, based on Drummond's recent performance, statistical trends, and model edge, the bet for Under 15.5 reception yards is a viable option.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+263)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data for Tyler Allgeier in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market shows a consistent underperformance against the Over 14.5 outcome. His overall hit rate is notably low at 11/62, with no successful hits in his last 10 attempts. Particularly, his home hit rate stands at 7/30, showing a less than 25% success rate, and his hit rate against the Seattle Seahawks is 0/2, indicating that he has never exceeded 14.5 reception yards against this team. His current hit streak is also at zero in all categories, which indicates a lack of recent momentum. Given these statistics, it appears unlikely that Allgeier will hit the Over 14.5 in the upcoming game against the Seahawks. The model edge of 0.180053096744286 also suggests a low probability of this outcome. Therefore, the data-driven rationale would advise against betting on Allgeier for Over 14.5 reception
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