Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction & Picks : Odds & Edges

The betting rationale for under 1.5 receptions for Tyler Allgeier comes down to recent performance trends and hit rates. In the last 3 games, Allgeier's overall hit rate for under 1.5 receptions was just 1/3, indicating a low success rate recently. His home hit rate mirrors that at 1/3 as well, suggesting that playing at home doesn't boost his reception count. His hit rate against the Seahawks is 2/2, suggesting a trend of fewer receptions against this particular opponent. His current hit streak is zero, both overall and at home, indicating a lack of momentum. The model edge of 0.0887 also favors the under. While Allgeier does have a solid overall hit rate (48/62), recent trends suggest he's unlikely to get more than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game against the Seahawks.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-130)

Betting on Tyler Allgeier to receive over 4.5 yards in the upcoming game between Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks is supported by his specific historical performance against Seattle. Despite having an overall weak recent performance, with a hit rate of 0/5 in his last 5 games and a current general hit streak of 0, Allgeier has consistently performed well against the Seahawks. He has a perfect hit rate of 2/2 in his last two games against them, as well as a current hit streak of 2 when playing against the Seahawks. Even more notable, when playing against the Seahawks at home, his hit rate remains perfect at 1/1. This pattern indicates that Allgeier tends to perform better against this particular team. Thus, based on these trends, a bet on Allgeier to achieve over 4.5 reception yards in this game is statistically justified.

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks : Under 44.5 Total Points (-108)

The bet on Under 44.5 points for this game is based on both teams' recent performance. Specifically, the home team has averaged 24.6 points for and 24.4 points against in their last five games, which gives a combined average of 49 points, slightly above the total. However, their home game stats show a lower combined average of 48.6 points. The away team has averaged 31.4 points for and 16.2 against in their last five games, resulting in a combined average of 47.6 points, again above the total. However, their away game stats show a lower average of 44.2 points. Furthermore, both teams have a significant EPA (Expected Points Added) difference, indicating they often score less than expected. Also, both teams have had more turnovers for than against recently, which often leads to lower scoring games. Hence, this statistical analysis supports the bet on Under 44.5 points.

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks : Under 44.5 Total Points (-112)

The bet on Under 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this NFL game is backed by the performance data of both teams. The home team's recent history shows a tendency towards lower scoring games, with an average score of 24.6 points in their last 5 games. They've also allowed an average of 24.4 points against them in the same period. Similarly, the away team has an average score of 31.4 points for and 16.2 points against across their last 5 games. The overall lower scoring trend is further supported by the home team's overall EPA (Expected Points Added) for of 2.11 and against of 1.87, while the away team shows a more pronounced defensive strength with an EPA against of -15.11. These numbers suggest that both teams have a strong defence, which could result in a game with fewer points scored overall. Therefore, betting Under 44.5 points seems statistically justified.

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks : NA -7 Point Spread (+100)

The betting rationale leans towards the Seattle Seahawks due to their recent performance data and records. Comparing the last five games, the Seahawks have a superior overall score (31.4 points for vs 16.2 points against), creating a significant point differential of 15.2, suggesting they are comfortably outscoring their opponents. On the other hand, the home team has a lesser point differential of 0.2 (24.6 points for vs 24.4 points against) and a negative point differential of -2.6 in their last five home games, indicating they struggle to outscore opponents at home. The Seahawks also demonstrate a higher explosive rate for (0.242711803143005). The EPA (Expected Points Added) difference for the Seahawks is also very positive (19.4014718633277), indicating their offensive play is highly effective. Finally, the Seahawks have a better recent record (4-1), compared to the home team's (1