Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-141)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Under 1.5 player receptions for Derrick Henry in the Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers game is based on his performance trends. Henry has not performed well against Pittsburgh, with a hit rate of only 1/3 overall and 0/1 at home. His overall hit rate in the last 3 games is also low at 1/3. Furthermore, his hit streak against Pittsburgh is currently at 0, indicating a lack of recent success. The model also provides an edge of approximately 0.15 for the under outcome, lending further support. Despite a stronger home hit rate, considering the specific opponent and the player's recent overall performance, the statistics suggest a higher probability that Henry will have fewer than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game.
Dylan Drummond (ATL) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
To rationalize the Under 15.5 bet for Dylan Drummond's player_reception_yds in the Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks game, we need to look at his recent performance and trend data. If Drummond's last five (L5) game averages for reception yards fall below the 15.5 mark, this indicates a consistent underperformance against the bet's outcome point. Additionally, we should consider hit rates and streaks; if Drummond regularly falls short of this outcome point, the likelihood of him exceeding it in the upcoming game is lower. The model edge of 0.195085690848891 also favors the Under bet, meaning the statistical model predicts a nearly 20% higher probability of Drummond staying under 15.5 reception yards than the odds imply. Therefore, based on Drummond's recent performance, statistical trends, and model edge, the bet for Under 15.5 reception yards is a viable option.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly suggests that betting on Tyler Allgeier to have Under 22.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks is a safe bet. Allgeier's recent performances reveal a consistent inability to hit the 22.5 yards mark. In his last five games overall, as well as his last five home games, he has failed to surpass this figure. Furthermore, when specifically facing the Seahawks, Allgeier's rushing yards have also consistently been under 22.5 in their last two encounters. This trend is even more pronounced when he plays against the Seahawks at home, where he has failed to reach this mark in their last meeting. Considering these trends, along with a model edge of 0.196617161376583, betting on Allgeier to have under 22.5 rushing yards seems to be a statistically sound decision.
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