Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Monday 01/19 (Kayshon Boutte Focus)

Betting on Kayshon Boutte to achieve over 19.5 receiving yards is a risky proposition. His recent performance metrics show a general lack of success in surpassing this mark. Over the last 5 games, both overall and at home, he has not once exceeded this yardage. His overall hit rate for the last 20 games is a mere 20% (4/20), suggesting that this is not a frequent occurrence for Boutte. However, a glimmer of hope lies in his performance against the Houston Texans. Despite small sample sizes, he has a 100% hit rate against Houston both overall and at home. This suggests that Boutte tends to perform better against the Texans. In this scenario, the historical data suggests a low likelihood of success, but Boutte's track record against the Texans could indicate a potential upset. Be mindful of the risks associated with this bet due to Boutte's overall poor performance in this market.

Hunter Henry (NE) Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The statistical data provided strongly suggests that betting on Hunter Henry for 'Under 38.5' in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a well-informed decision. Henry has consistently failed to hit this mark in recent games, resulting in an overall hit rate of 23/63. Notably, his performance at home games is below par, with a hit rate of just 10/32. His results against the Houston Texans are even less promising, having never surpassed the 38.5 yard mark in their previous encounters. Henry's current hit streak across all categories, including overall, home, versus Houston, and versus Houston at home, stands at zero, further underscoring his underperformance. The model's edge of 0.185 also suggests a statistical advantage for this bet. Thus, based on these trends and recent performances, betting under 38.5 for Henry's reception yards seems like a statistically sound wager.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Statistically, betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to go over 21.5 reception yards appears to be a risky wager. His recent performance doesn't support the bet. The overall hit rate for this particular outcome is low, with only 13 successful outcomes out of 59 attempts. Specifically, in his last 20 games, he achieved the over in only 2 instances. His performance at home is slightly better, with a 7/29 hit rate, but still not encouraging. Stevenson's hit streaks don't provide a positive outlook either, with both his overall and home hit streaks currently at zero. His last 5 games, whether overall or at home, have all resulted in unsuccessful outcomes. Despite the model indicating a slight edge of 0.1835, the player's historical and recent performance data suggest a high probability of not achieving over 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Houston Texans.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (+115)

Based on the provided data, betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to achieve over 24.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans seems statistically unlikely. The player's recent performance and overall hit rates do not support this outcome. Stevenson has failed to hit the 24.5 reception yards mark in his last 20 overall games, and his 10% overall hit rate (10/59) is underwhelming. His performance at home is slightly better, with a hit rate of 21% (6/29), but still not encouraging. Furthermore, his recent home and overall performance shows a clear trend of underperformance, with no hits in the last 10 games. Considering these statistics and current form, it appears that the probability of Stevenson surpassing 24.5 reception yards is quite low. Therefore, the statistical rationale suggests that this might not be a profitable bet.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 21.5 Player reception yds alternate (-109)

Based on the given data, betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to achieve Over 21.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market seems to be a high-risk proposition. Stevenson has a poor track record in recent games, with 0 hits in his last 3, 5, and 10 games both overall and at home. His overall hit rate is only 13 out of 59 with an even lower home hit rate of 7 out of 29. Also, he is currently on a zero-hit streak both overall and at home, indicating a significant slump in performance. Although the model edge is 0.180767049858042, which indicates a potential advantage, the player's consistent underperformance in recent games suggests that this may not translate into a successful bet. It's crucial to weigh the potential payoff against these unfavorable statistics when deciding on this bet.