Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate (+610)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical evidence suggests that betting on Kayshon Boutte to have over 4.5 receptions in the upcoming game against the Houston Texans is not a strong choice. Looking at Boutte's recent performance, he has an overall hit rate of 0/5 in his last five games, which indicates he has not surpassed 4.5 receptions in any of those matchups. Moreover, his hit rate against the Texans is 0/1, showing he has not achieved over 4.5 receptions in his previous encounter with this team. Additionally, the data shows that his hit rate at home is also disappointing, with 0 successful attempts in the last three games. His overall hit rate is 4/33, signaling a low probability of surpassing the 4.5 receptions mark. Therefore, the data does not support betting on Boutte to achieve over 4.5 receptions in this game.
Hunter Henry (NE) Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data provided strongly suggests that betting on Hunter Henry for 'Under 38.5' in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a well-informed decision. Henry has consistently failed to hit this mark in recent games, resulting in an overall hit rate of 23/63. Notably, his performance at home games is below par, with a hit rate of just 10/32. His results against the Houston Texans are even less promising, having never surpassed the 38.5 yard mark in their previous encounters. Henry's current hit streak across all categories, including overall, home, versus Houston, and versus Houston at home, stands at zero, further underscoring his underperformance. The model's edge of 0.185 also suggests a statistical advantage for this bet. Thus, based on these trends and recent performances, betting under 38.5 for Henry's reception yards seems like a statistically sound wager.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to go over 21.5 reception yards appears to be a risky wager. His recent performance doesn't support the bet. The overall hit rate for this particular outcome is low, with only 13 successful outcomes out of 59 attempts. Specifically, in his last 20 games, he achieved the over in only 2 instances. His performance at home is slightly better, with a 7/29 hit rate, but still not encouraging. Stevenson's hit streaks don't provide a positive outlook either, with both his overall and home hit streaks currently at zero. His last 5 games, whether overall or at home, have all resulted in unsuccessful outcomes. Despite the model indicating a slight edge of 0.1835, the player's historical and recent performance data suggest a high probability of not achieving over 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Houston Texans.
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