Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams : NA Moneyline (+164)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the Chicago Bears in the head-to-head (h2h) market is supported by several key performance metrics. The Bears have showcased a stronger performance at home, with a positive point differential of 7.6 in their last five home games compared to the away team's 4.8. They also have a better home record, standing at 4-1 in their last five games, whereas the away team has a weaker 2-3 record. The Bears have demonstrated a higher explosive rate at home than their opponents have on the road, indicating a greater ability to create big plays. Furthermore, the Bears have been in control of the ball better at home with fewer turnovers, which can be a crucial factor in controlling the game's momentum. Lastly, the Bears' model edge of 0.097 suggests that they are statistically favored to win this matchup. These factors combined provide a compelling rationale for betting on the Bears in the h2h market.
Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 214.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting under 214.5 for Caleb Williams in the 'player_pass_yds' market seems to be a statistically strong option. Williams' performance data shows a consistent inability to surpass this point level. His recent form is particularly indicative, with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in his last three games and 0/5 in his last five. Even on home turf, he hasn't been able to exceed this mark, with a home hit rate of 0/3 in the last three home games and 0/5 in the last five. His overall and ten-game hit rates also lean heavily towards the under, making it clear that his passing yards rarely break 214.5. The only positive trend for Williams is against the LA Rams, where he has a 100% hit rate under 214.5 both overall and at home. This bet's model edge of approximately 9% also bolsters confidence in this under bet.
Rome Odunze (CHI) Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly suggests a bet on Rome Odunze to finish with Under 34.5 reception yards in his match-up against the Los Angeles Rams. Odunze's recent performance metrics demonstrate a consistent trend of falling short of this mark. In his last 5 overall games, he has not hit this target even once. The same trend is observed in his last 5 home games, where he has also consistently failed to achieve this target. Furthermore, in his last 10 overall and home games, he's only managed to hit this target once, revealing a tendency to underperform in this particular market. Despite having achieved this target in his last game against the Rams, the overall data suggests this might be an outlier rather than a trend. The model edge of about 0.08 also indicates a higher probability for the 'Under' outcome.
Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Caleb Williams' recent performance and trends strongly favor taking the under on his projected passing yards of 212.5. His overall hit rate over his last 20 games is just 2/20, demonstrating a consistent inability to surpass this mark. At home, his hit rate is slightly better but still low at 4/18. When playing against the LA Rams, both at home and overall, he has only hit this mark once, further supporting this bet. His current hit streaks are telling as well - he is on a zero-game streak overall and at home, while he is on a one-game streak against the Rams. Additionally, the model edge of 0.064 adds another layer of assurance to the bet. Therefore, using the available data and trends, it is statistically reasonable to bet that Caleb Williams will throw for fewer than 212.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Rams.
Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams : NA +3.5 Point Spread (-102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Chicago Bears have a strong rationale for a spread bet, particularly when focusing on the home stats. The Bears' home stats over the last 5 games are compelling, with an overall winning record (4-1), a positive point differential (7.6), and a strong EPA (Expected Points Added) differential (6.6). The Bears also have an advantage in turnovers, creating more than they've surrendered. Additionally, their explosive rate for is higher than against, suggesting more big-play potential. Conversely, the away team's recent performance doesn't instill confidence. Although their overall last 5 games record is balanced (3-2), their record in away games is negative (2-3). They've shown a negative turnover differential in away games as well, indicating difficulty retaining possession. Given the Bears' strong home performance and the away team's struggles, betting on the Bears with a 3.5 point spread seems a statistically sound choice.
Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams : NA +3.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the Chicago Bears to beat the spread of 3.5 points in this NFL game is backed by several statistical indicators. Firstly, the Bears have a strong recent home record, with a 4-1 win-loss ratio over their last five home games. This suggests they perform well on their home turf. Secondly, they have a positive point differential in their last five home games (7.6 points), suggesting they generally outscore their opponents. Additionally, the Bears have a positive turnover differential in their past five games, which suggests they are good at retaining possession and could therefore control the tempo of the game. Furthermore, their Explosive Play Rate For (0.227783533300253) is higher than the Against (0.184756676751781) in the last five home games, indicating that their offense has the potential to make significant, game-changing plays. It's also worth noting that the model edge for the Bears is positive (0.041179487179
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