D'Andre Swift (CHI) Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
While D'Andre Swift has struggled to exceed 13.5 receiving yards in his recent matches, his performance specifically against the Los Angeles Rams paints a promising picture. Swift has exceeded the 13.5 receiving yards in all of his previous encounters with the Rams, both at home and away. This includes a perfect 2/2 hit rate in his last 5 and 10 matches against LA, and a 100% hit rate at home. This indicates that Swift tends to perform well against the Rams' defensive lineup. Despite his overall and recent poor form, the specific matchup against the Rams seems to favor Swift. Therefore, the bet on Swift to have over 13.5 receiving yards in the game against the Rams could be strategically sound based on his historical performance against this particular team.
D'Andre Swift (CHI) Over 13.5 Player reception yds alternate (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Analyzing D'Andre Swift's recent performance and hit rates, this bet appears risky. His overall current hit streak is at zero, with no successful bets in his last 10 overall and last 5 at home games. However, there's a potential upside when looking at his stats specifically against the Los Angeles Rams. Swift has a 100% hit rate in his last 2 games against this team, both at home and away. This suggests that he may perform better against the Rams compared to other teams. Despite the potential upside, the overall trend suggests a lower probability of Swift surpassing 13.5 reception yards. This, combined with a modest model edge of 0.166838, suggests caution when considering this bet. The historical data doesn't strongly support Swift's ability to exceed this benchmark, particularly given his recent performance.
DJ Moore (CHI) Over 69.5 Player reception yds alternate (+620)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on DJ Moore to exceed 69.5 receiving yards in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams is based on his recent performance and trends. In the last five games, Moore has shown a consistent ability to surpass this yardage threshold. His average receiving yards per game in this period has been well beyond the 69.5 mark, suggesting that he would be likely to meet or exceed this figure once again. Furthermore, Moore's hit rate, or the frequency with which he's been able to achieve this feat, is impressive, indicating a pattern of high-performance. The model's edge of 0.164955225698707 also supports this rationale, implying that there is a statistical advantage to backing this outcome. Overall, Moore's track record and the model's analysis suggest that this is a bet worth considering.
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