Best NFL Parlay Picks Today, Monday 01/19 (7-Leg)

Based on DJ Moore's recent performance, betting on him for over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market seems like a sound choice. Moore has shown a consistent ability to get open and make catches, contributing to his solid average over the last 5 games. His hit rate, or the frequency at which he achieves this benchmark, also supports the potential for success in this bet. Moreover, the model edge of 0.070429168187211 indicates that the model sees value in this bet, suggesting it's more likely to happen than the odds imply. This edge, coupled with Moore's consistent statistics and performance, offers a data-driven rationale for this bet. However, it's also important to consider the opposing team's defense. The Rams are known for their strong defense, so Moore's ability to overcome this challenge should also be factored into the betting decision.

Drake Maye (NE) Over 149.5 Player pass yds alternate (-833)

While the model edge for the bet is positive at 0.092, the betting rationale for Drake Maye to pass for over 149.5 yards against the Houston Texans is not strong based on his recent performance and trends. Over his last 20 games, he has not hit this mark, as indicated by his overall hit rate of 0/20. Furthermore, his hit rate in home games is only 3/16. While he does have a perfect record (1/1) against the Texans, it is based on a single game, which is not a large enough sample size to draw reliable conclusions. Maye's overall current hit streak is 0, indicating he has consistently underperformed this bet recently. Based on these statistics, the probability of Maye passing for over 149.5 yards seems limited, despite the positive model edge. The decision to make this bet would rely heavily on the belief that Maye will significantly outperform his recent trends.

Kayshon Boutte (NE) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1429)

Statistically, betting on Kayshon Boutte for Over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market presents a risky proposition. Boutte's recent performance does not inspire confidence, with an overall hit rate of 0 in his last 3, 5, and 10 games, and a home hit rate of 0 in his last 3 and 5 games. He has also failed to hit the target in his last 10 overall games. His overall current hit streak is also at 0, further indicating poor recent form. However, in games against the Houston Texans, Boutte's performance significantly improves. He has a hit rate of 1 in his last games against Houston, both at home and away. His current hit streak against Houston is also at 1. Hence, while the overall data suggests a low probability of success for this bet, Boutte's specific performance against the Texans may provide a glimmer of hope for bettors.

Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 124.5 Player pass yds alternate (-1429)

The bet on Caleb Williams to cover over 124.5 passing yards in the 'player_pass_yds_alternate' market for the Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams game is a risky one, given recent trends. Williams has a lackluster overall hit rate (14/35) and an even worse recent hit rate, having failed to cover this line in his last 5 games (overall_hit_rate_last_5: 0/5) and his last 10 games (overall_hit_rate_last_10: 0/10). His home performance is equally concerning, with a current home streak of 0 and a hit rate of 6/18 overall. However, Williams has performed well against the Rams, hitting this target in his last encounter (vs_la_hit_rate_last_3: 1/1; vs_la_hit_rate_last_5: 1/1; vs_la_hit_rate_last_10: 1/1; vs_la_at_home_hit_rate_last

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-345)

Betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to secure over 1.5 receptions in the upcoming New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game is a statistically sound choice. Stevenson's recent performance data supports this conclusion. He has a perfect hit rate in his last 5 games overall, and a near-perfect rate at home, hitting the over 1.5 receptions mark 4 out of the last 5 times. This upward trend is further reinforced by Stevenson's current hit streaks, with 6 overall and 4 at home. Over a larger sample size, his overall and home hit rates remain impressive, at 76% (45/59) and 83% (24/29) respectively. Therefore, given his consistent reception numbers and the model edge of 0.170441638367124, a bet on Stevenson to have over 1.5 receptions appears to be a promising wager.

Hunter Henry (NE) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-1250)

Betting on Hunter Henry to achieve over 1.5 receptions in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market is statistically promising. Henry's recent performance and hit rates suggest a high probability of this outcome. His overall_hit_rate_last_20 stands at 75% (15/20) and this increases to 85% (17/20) for home games, showing strong performance, especially at home. Against the Houston Texans, his hit rates are perfect, both overall and at home, albeit from a single game data point. This is reinforced by his overall_current_hit_streak of 4 and a home_current_hit_streak of 2, indicating a positive trend. Furthermore, Henry has exceeded this outcome in 50 out of 63 games overall, and 25 out of 32 home games, demonstrating a strong historical trend. Though the model_edge is quite small (0.0131556599179279), the compelling hit rates and trends make this bet a rational choice.